WASHINGTON — Throughout the election season, Republican Donald Trump consistently outpaced Democrat Kamala Harris on the issue voters said mattered most to them: the economy.

Trump, the former Manhattan real estate mogul turned reality TV personality, expanded his support base this election by appealing to the financial concerns of Americans fatigued by rising prices and interest rates, according to national exit polls.

“Are you in a better situation today than you were four years ago?” » Trump called for rally after rally in the weeks leading up to the election.

The answer from the majority of voters, according to exit polls, was “no.”

Sixty-seven percent of voters surveyed had a negative view of the economy, and 45 percent said their financial situation was “worse now” than it was four years ago, according to the survey released by the polls from Edison Research, which is conducting the investigation on behalf of a consortium of American media.

Four years ago, Joe Biden was elected president as the COVID-19 pandemic continued to wreak havoc on the global economy: the unemployment rate in the United States was 6.4% in January 2021 when he was sworn in, shortages in the global supply chain have impacted the U.S. manufacturing industry. , and some businesses closed their doors or reduced operations as consumers stayed home.

As Biden prepares to leave office, unemployment has fallen to 4.1% and average hourly wages have increased 22.3% since the pandemic began in February 2020, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

But that data did little to assuage voters’ concerns after inflation hit 9.1% in June 2022. That rate has since fallen 2.4%, but prices remain higher than before the pandemic and increases in interest rates have made borrowing more expensive.

Food is now 26% more expensive than before the pandemic, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and a new car will cost 20% more on average.

“What political scientists tend to find is that what people feel at the end of the first quarter of an election year is actually what they think about when they go to the polls,” Richard said Himelfarb, professor of political science at Hofstra University, to Newsday. “So the fact that inflation has fallen… is not really relevant. The damage was done.”

Competing messages from Harris

Harris presented herself as a “middle-class kid” sensitive to the needs of American workers, but her economic message also competed with her narrative that Trump was a threat to democracy, an argument that Democrats, following his defeat, have since recognized. little to convince voters concerned about the post-pandemic economy.

Exit polls showed that 32% of voters ranked the economy as the top issue influencing their vote, followed by 14% citing abortion and 11% citing immigration. The state of democracy came in first at 34 percent, but political scientists said the issue took on different meanings for voters in the two parties: For Democrats, it meant viewing Trump as a threat to democracy; for Republicans, it meant growing distrust of government institutions.

“The main challenge for the Democrats was that they had to make this a referendum on Donald Trump and not a referendum on the economy. The problem with this strategic imperative is that it ignores the economy, which was the predominant issue for voters,” the former Democrat said. Long Island Congressman Steve Israel, a Democrat from Huntington who is now director of the Institute of Politics and World Affairs at Cornell University.

Israel, who advised Biden’s 2020 campaign and served as chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee for four years, said that while Harris and the Democrats were trying to “advocate on a menu of important issues, including abortion and democracy,” voters continued to report that their economic woes were the main problem.

“When citizens feel their economic security is at risk, they tend to be more willing to ignore their rights in democracy,” Israel said. “For them, this is not an extension of their rights, it is a question of economic survival. So the question of democracy can fail.”

Harris, on the campaign trail, took advantage of Trump’s promises to go after his political critics, whom he called “enemies within,” to describe him as “someone unstable, obsessed with vengeance, consumed by grievances and seeking unchecked power.”

The focus on Trump may have played a role in his victory, said Republican campaign strategist Michael Dawidziak of Bayport, who previously served as a campaign adviser to the late President George HW Bush.

“She made the same mistake that almost everyone who ran against Donald Trump, whether it was his primary opponents in the past or Hillary (Clinton), they all made the same mistake: they pass more time talking about him than they did about themselves, and that elevates him in people’s minds, it makes him the most important person in the room.” , said Dawidziak.

How Trump won on the economy

Despite the whirlwind of controversy surrounding Trump — a criminal conviction stemming from his 2016 campaign, two federal indictments for his handling of classified documents and his role in the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol — has capitalized on a Biden presidency which entered the race with low approval ratings.

Harris, who had an abbreviated three months to run her campaign after Biden withdrew in July, failed to distance herself from a president whom exit polls show a majority of voters disapprove. Exit polls showed that 58% of voters surveyed disapproved of Biden’s job performance, compared to 41% who said they approved.

These notes of disapproval come as economic indicators show low unemployment, falling inflation and a record stock market – but the numbers have done little to dispel voters’ unease over rising prices. following the COVID-19 pandemic and the high cost of borrowing. as the Federal Reserve raised interest rates to dampen inflation.

“Trump did a much better job of explaining that he would be better on economics,” Dawidziak said.

During the campaign, Trump unveiled a series of proposals aimed at American workers, including a proposal to exempt tips from income taxes, a proposal to exempt overtime from income taxes and a commitment to reducing auto insurance rates.

He also called for tariffs on all imported goods and a revival of the 2017 tax plan that cut corporate taxes, a program that several economists say could lead to inflationary pressures on the economy and an increase in the national deficit.

A Goldman Sachs analysis released in early September estimated that Trump’s tariff plan would increase inflation by 0.3 to 0.4 percentage points, and a report from the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School of Business predicted that the series of Trump’s campaign proposals could increase the national deficit by $5.8 trillion. over a period of 10 years from 2025 to 2034.

Trump’s campaign claimed in a previous statement in response to critical economic reports that “Trump’s policies are fueling growth, lowering inflation and inspiring American manufacturing.”

With Republicans taking control of the Senate and on track to win a majority in the House, Trump will likely have broad support in both chambers to pass his economic agenda, although he could face challenges. resistance, said William G. Gale, Senate co-director. nonpartisan Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center and former senior economist at the Council of Economic Advisers under HW Bush.

“Trump has promised so much to so many people on tax that it’s hard to know what to expect,” Gale told Newsday. “Especially to the extent that Congress or the administration wants to control the deficit and therefore should pay for the tax cuts by raising other taxes or reducing spending.”

Laura Figueroa Hernandez is the White House correspondent and has previously covered politics and government in New York. She joined Newsday in 2012 after covering national and local politics for the Miami Herald.