The survey hit like an earthquake ahead of the 2024 general elections.

In Kansas – reliably Republican Kansas, of all places – a Fort Hays State University survey showed that Donald Trump had only five points ahead of Kamala Harris in the presidential race. Add in Iowa and Ohio polls showing a surprisingly close contest, and the stage was seemingly set for a Democratic outperformance.

This did not happen.

In fact, it did not happen that Trump won by over 16 percentage points. Kansas Republicans expanded their supermajorities in the Statehouse. Conservatives will control the State Board of Education. And those of us who followed the vote wondered what happened.

Fortunately, we know this now. Brett Zollingerdirector of the Docking Institute of Public Affairs at Fort Hays, wrote a “Addendum to the Kansas Speaks 2024 Survey Report» which explains what went wrong and why. In short, the investigation made an arguable error and likely missed changes in public opinion because of the timing. Those who dream of the day when Kansas becomes a blue state – or at least acquires a purplish hue – will benefit from paying close attention.

Zollinger highlights three areas that led to the vote’s failure.

First, the survey did not take party identification into account. This may sound technical, but bear with me. Those who traditionally work in public opinion research balance their investigations in various ways. Imagine you receive 100 responses to a survey, but only 20 of those responses come from college graduates. In Kansas however, almost 36% of adults hold a baccalaureate or higher diploma. The interviewer will therefore give weight to these 20 people in calculating the responses, to more accurately reflect the population of the state as a whole.

Polls can be weighted in all sorts of ways. Age, gender, education, you name it. But the Fort Hays investigation was not given particularly weighty weight.

Zollinger states: “Unlike 2020, the 2024 Kansas Speaks survey data, when weighted by age, gender and education, had an underrepresentation of Republicans (about 4%) and an overrepresentation of Democrats (about 7%). . …Weighting by party identity was necessary in 2024, especially since Republicans and Democrats were extremely polarized in their preference for presidential candidates. When weighted by the best party identification proxy available in the survey, Trump’s advantage among survey respondents stands at +10.5% among registered voters planning to vote and +14. 6% among all respondents planning to vote. The absence of a party identification question, and then weighting by party identification, is the primary factor in the gap between the Kansas presidential vote and the candidate preference results from the 2024 Kansas Speaks Survey.”

In other words, the survey didn’t hear from enough Republicans and didn’t weight the Republican Party’s responses. To be honest, understanding which qualities to consider in surveys can be a difficult task. As recently as 2006major public polling organizations have specifically objected to weighting based on partisan identification. But times are changingas are the preferred methods of poll weighting.

In the 2016 presidential election, for example, polls tended to ignore education level. If they had, Trump’s victory would have been more obvious. Most public pollsters have started doing it in the years that followed.

The second problem Zollinger identifies is that “recent policymakers have strongly opposed Trump. The Kansas Speaks 2024 survey concluded on October 16, nearly three weeks before Election Day.

This raises an unavoidable but neglected fact about all measures of public opinion: they exist in time. They say what people think on the day they are interviewed. This can change – and change dramatically – depending on events. Although I personally had a hard time imagining that late-deciding voters could lean Republican, it apparently happened in Kansas. Perhaps we shouldn’t be surprised, given the state’s enduring partisan leaning.

Finally, Zollinger notes: “In the final month leading up to the 2024 election, Republican voter registrations in Kansas between October and September exceeded Democratic voter registrations by a margin of more than 2 to 1, with 15,710 Republican registrations. in October, compared to 6,336 Democratic registrations. »

In other words, Kansas Republicans showed up register in mass. These new voters helped propel Trump to his decisive victory in the state.

I don’t want to dwell too much on the past. After all, we have the election results and I shared my catches. However, I think it’s worth taking a moment to think about what this additional information from Fort Hays suggests. the way forward for progressive (and sensible moderates and conservatives) activists in Kansas.

Simply ensuring that new voters register will not be enough to change the political direction of Kansas. Based on the information cited above, there have been a number of new registrations for Trump. Democrats have long believed that new voters and high voter turnout will magically benefit their camp. I wonder if this has ever been true, and it certainly is this does not seem to be the case NOW. New voters liked what they heard from Republicans.

Defenders also need to be realistic about the dream of turning Kansas blue. The state has a broad pragmatic tendency and strong majorities are in favor the right to abortion, the expansion of Medicaid and the legalization of marijuana. But that doesn’t mean these majorities automatically vote for Democrats or for a plethora of progressive priorities.

Joe Biden received 42% votes here in 2020. Kamala Harris got 41% in 2024. This bloc of Kansans appears stable, capable of electing the wayward Democratic member of the U.S. House of Representatives or state legislator. In a gubernatorial race, he may even elect a governor if enough moderate Republicans join the party. But to do even better, it will be necessary rethink assumptionsas well as substantial investments of time and money.

Kansas remains a red state. Those who support positive change and a different direction also stay. How activists reconcile these two facts will define our state for years to come.

Clay Wirestone is an opinion editor for the Kansas Reflector. Through its opinion section, Kansas Reflector works to amplify the voices of people affected by public policy or excluded from public debate. Find information, including how to submit your own comments, here.