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US elections: when will we know who won?
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US elections: when will we know who won?

Around 81 million people voted before Tuesday, more than half of the total votes cast in 2020.

How long is the countdown?

The first polls close at 6 p.m. Eastern Time (11 p.m. GMT), but when the race is close, it could take days before a winner is decided.

In 2020, American media declared Democratic candidate Joe Biden the winner on Saturday, November 7, even though polling stations were closed the previous Tuesday.

In 2016 and 2012, voters had a shorter wait.

Once the votes are cast, local election officials, who may be appointed or elected, process and count them. Counting methods vary from place to place.

Many states have changed their election laws to allow mail-in or overseas ballots to be prepared before Election Day, although Pennsylvania and Wisconsin have not made similar changes.

Both are battlegrounds that could tilt in favor of either side. With mail-in ballots not allowed to be processed until November 5, this could slow down the count.

Particularly close counts can also trigger a recount.

Who certifies it?

Rather than waiting for local officials to declare winners, U.S. media are running races based on what they see in the voting.

But that process is unofficial and results still need to be certified at the state level, with each ballot counted.

The deadline for states to certify their results is December 11, and each state’s designated electors then vote for the candidate who won in their popular vote.

By December 25, each state’s election certificates must reach the President of the Senate, who is also Vice President Harris.

On January 6, Congress counts and confirms the results, before the inauguration of the new president on January 20.

What can cause delays?

Certification is a formality, but experts warn there are growing risks of obstructions.

At least 22 county election officials voted in 2022 to delay certification in battleground states, Brookings experts noted in a commentary last month.

This represents an increase of almost 30% compared to 2020.

At least 35 election officials have “refused to certify the election results and may be able to do so again,” according to Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington (CREW).

A successful filibuster could impact state and federal certification deadlines, the campaign group warned.

The certification process has faced intense scrutiny and been particularly politicized since Trump refused to concede the 2020 election.

During this race, dozens of legal challenges brought by Trump and his allies were rejected by the courts.

There has been a deluge of lawsuits from both parties ahead of Election Day, which could also complicate the count.