• Russian missile and drone strikes are becoming more intense, a new study shows.
• Russia has recently intensified its strikes and degraded Ukraine’s electricity production.
• The United States must do more to rein in countries that supply Russia’s arsenal, experts say.

To understand the firepower Russia has unleashed on Ukraine, consider these numbers:

On average, 23 missiles and attack drones struck Ukraine per day between September 2022 and September 2024. These attacks included 36 different models of missiles and drones, including Iskander ballistic missiles, Kh-59 cruise missiles and Iranian-made Shahed kamikaze drones. These figures do not include numerous attacks by small drones. These weapons are in no way limited to military targets. Among the destroyed buildings, far from the front lines, are hospitalsapartment complexes and a military academy filled with cadets.

Russian strikes have become more ferocious since the Russian invasion in February 2022, according to the study by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington-based think tank. In April 2023, 117 missiles were fired at Ukraine. By August 2024, that number had increased 10-fold, to 1,110 rockets.

Using open source data, including a Ukrainian analyst who compiled a database In the face of Russian attacks, CSIS has focused on Russian “firepower strikes,” an emerging concept in the Russian, Chinese, and U.S. militaries in which multiple types of missiles and drones are combined for maximum effect. In addition to saturating the Ukrainian market air defense networkRussia launched these weapons from multiple locations and directions to confuse the defenders.

These incessant bombings did not allow Russia to defeat Ukraine, nor did they terrorize the Ukrainian public into submission as the Russian leader desired. But it caused heavy damage. Strikes against Ukraine energy infrastructure destroyed two-thirds of the country’s electricity-generating capacity, crippling the manufacturing sector and leaving many Ukrainians shivering in the winter cold.

Estimates of Russian missile strikes and Ukrainian interceptions should be treated with caution. “These are Ukraine’s official numbers,” Yasir Atalan, a researcher at CSIS’s Futures Lab, told Business Insider. “So any deduction should be based on that.”

There is, however, wide variation in the intensity of Russian strikes, which appears to vary depending on Moscow’s priorities. In April 2023, there were an average of only 10 missiles per day. In August 2024, this number increased to 35 per day. “There were 17 days during the study period where missile launches exceeded 82 missiles in a single day,” CSIS said. “These high-intensity launch days correspond to specific military operations, strategic offensives or responses to critical developments on the battlefield, reflecting moments of increased intensity of the conflict.”

From October 2022 to December 2022, daily missile attacks increased from an average of 22 per day to 33. “While high, the levels are likely lower than Israel’s airstrikes on Gaza and the Iranian salvos targeting Israel imply modern firepower strikes,” CSIS said. said. “Moscow was either trying to keep intact Ukrainian infrastructure it thought it could seize, or was prevented by covert action – or poor logistics and targeting – from releasing its entire arsenal.”

From December 2023 to March 2024, between 26 and 29 missiles were launched per day. “These high and sustained levels correspond to Russia’s desire to destroy Ukrainian critical infrastructure as a way to pressure Kyiv to end the conflict,” CSIS said.

August 2024 was the most active month in the study, averaging 36 per day for a total of 1,110 missiles. However, by September 2024, there were only 12 missiles per day, “indicating a temporary lull in missile activities related to either low stockpiles or long-range Ukrainian strikes.”

If there is any good news here, it is that Ukraine achieved surprising success in stopping Russian missile and drone attacks despite having sufficient munitions. Western air defenses as Patriot And NASAMS. The average daily interception rate is almost 84%, although Atalan stressed that this figure includes drones as well as missiles.

These figures suggest several key factors, CSIS concluded. One is the importance of Russia’s allies replenishing their missile and drone arsenals. “Maintaining an average of more than 23 missiles launched daily for nearly two years demonstrates a high level of sustained military capability in Moscow and logistical support from countries like Iran, North Korea and China. States “The United States and its partners must do more to curb the ability of these regimes to replenish the Russian arsenal.”

Ukraine’s success in intercepting Russian missiles suggests that its combination of Western-supplied and Russian-designed air defense systems is capable of providing an effective missile defense capability. “Maintaining this high interception rate will require continued Western support for Ukraine,” CSIS said.

Because missile strikes accelerate when Russian ground troops launch major strikes offensiveearly warning of Russian offensive preparations is crucial. And the fact that Russian strikes are being launched from multiple sites and using a combination of weapons suggests that the solution is to strengthen Ukraine’s long-range bombing capacity. Ukraine has recently turned to strikes on Russian munitions depots in an attempt to reduce Russia’s firepower advantage.

“Ukraine needs flexibility to strike multiple missile launch sites deep inside Russia to reduce the power of Moscow’s strikes,” CSIS said.

Michael Peck is a defense writer whose work has appeared in Forbes, Defense News, Foreign Policy magazine and other publications. He holds a master’s degree in political science from Rutgers Univ. Follow him on Twitter And LinkedIn.