State of Pennsylvania was a winner Tuesday night when the first edition of the College Football Playoff rankings were released by the selection committee.

The Nittany Lions were ranked No. 6 in the standings first series of CFP rankings in the 12-team era.

Penn State sat behind Oregon, Ohio State, Georgia, Miami and Texas, in that order, after the Nittany Lions lost to the Buckeyes last weekend at Beaver Stadium. But above all, James Franklin‘s team stood above No. 7 Tennessee, No. 8 Indiana and others.

So why were the Nittany Lions ranked where they were? And what does it mean for them to move forward? We take an in-depth look at the CFP committee’s initial rankings.

The reasoning behind Penn State’s ranking

CFP President Warde Manuel met with reporters on a conference call Tuesday evening to answer questions about the first round of rankings. Manuel, the Michigan athletic director, was asked about Penn State, its No. 6 ranking and its resume against Tennessee and others.

Manuel discussed Penn State’s close loss to Ohio State, its non-conference road win at West Virginia to open the season and the brilliance of tight end Tyler Warren.

“Penn State lost to the No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes, and it was a back-and-forth game. Obviously, a match that could have gone the other way. It was back and forth,” Manuel said. “They have wins against Illinois and Southern Cal in overtime. Opening win in West Virginia, tough to play. We examined all of their work.

“… Looking at the resume, looking at what we’ve seen, the offensive performance and their tight end Tyler Warren is a dominant force on offense. I just think Penn State, in terms of body of work, and what the committee saw in terms of body of work, came in ranking Penn State at No. 6 and Tennessee at No. 7.

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Schedule strength matters

There was outrage online that Indiana was being disrespected. The Hoosiers are undefeated, winning their nine games by a total of 296 points. Some thought Indiana should have been ranked above Penn State and Tennessee. Manuel mentioned strength of schedule (SOS) as an important factor.

According to ESPN statistics, the Indiana SOS ranks 103rd among 134 FBS teams. The Hoosiers played Florida International, Western Illinois and Charlotte at home in non-conference. In Big Ten play, the Hoosiers throttled UCLA, Maryland, Northwestern, Nebraska, Washington and Michigan State. These teams have a combined record of 25-27 this season.

Penn State’s SOS is 28th. The Nittany Lions defeated West Virginia, 34-12, on the road in the first game. Their four Big Ten wins are against teams – Illinois, UCLA, USC and Wisconsin – with a combined record of 18-17.

The Tennessee SOS is 33rd. The Volunteers smoked NC State, 51-10, in Charlotte in non-conference play. They have a top 15 win over Alabama and a bad loss to Arkansas.

Can Penn State still win the Big Ten championship?

It’s extremely unlikely, but there is a path for Penn State to achieve its best-case scenario.

Penn State has a 5.2% chance of winning the Big Ten, according to ESPN projections. The Nittany Lions would need an 11-1 record and a lot of help to get to Indianapolis.

The most likely outcome is that Indiana beats Michigan and Ohio State beats Purdue this weekend, leaving a Nov. 16 matchup between the Buckeyes and Hoosiers to decide who goes to the Big Ten title game for face Oregon (assuming they run the table).

But if Indiana loses to Michigan and Ohio State, the Nittany Lions would lose Ohio State to Michigan before going to the Big Ten championship game. Indiana and Ohio State would have two conference losses, and Penn State would only have one.

Why is all this important? Well, the banners fly forever. Winning the conference still counts as a point of pride. Importantly, the Big Ten champion would also get a bye in the first round of the CFP.

Again, this is highly, very unlikely. But it’s not completely out of the question.

Week 11 Rooting Interests

Michigan at No. 8 Indiana: Indiana was great. What Curt Cignetti, Kurtis Rourke and Hoosiers did is one of the stories of the college football season so far. But Penn State fans should be responsible for their downfall.

Purdue at No. 2 Ohio State: Maybe Purdue can pull off the impossible upset? Ohio State has a 99% chance of winning, according to ESPN. But hey, it’s something to encourage at midday.

No. 2 Georgia at No. 16 Ole Miss: Outside of the Big Ten, the Nittany Lions want to keep it as clean as possible. A two-loss Ole Miss earning a signature win over Georgia would return the Rebels to the top 10. But the Dawgs would still be alive.

Conclusion

Penn State is in a sweet spot. If the Nittany Lions win – if they beat Washington, Purdue, Minnesota and Maryland – they will be on the field. And starting at No. 6, leading the standings for the remainder of the regular season would almost assuredly guarantee a home playoff game — perhaps even the coveted No. 5 seed against, most likely, the Group of Five representative.

If Penn State loses to, say, Washington and wins the rest of its games, things get a little dicey. Hosting a playoff game might be out the window. But a 10-2 record would still be enough in most scenarios to take the field.

Franklin will insist on winning against the Huskies (and the rest of the teams on the schedule) as the Nittany Lions effectively decide their own fate in the CFP.