A limited inventory of homes for sale in the Chicago area is pushing home prices above the national level, according to Daryl Fairweather, chief economist at Redfin. In September, Redfin data shows Chicago-area home prices rose 9.4% from the same period last year, compared to a 3.9% increase nationally . Chicago-area home sales fell 9.2% year over year in September, compared to a 4.8% decline nationally. New home listings declined 7% in Chicago, compared with a 2% year-over-year increase nationally in August, Fairweather said, with Redfin data showing Chicago saw a slight September registrations increased year-over-year, while registrations were down minimally nationally.

“The way I see it, people who own homes in the Chicago area are not willing to sell them,” Fairweather said. “And there are more people looking to buy a home than there are willing to sell it, putting further pressure on prices. …while in the rest of the country, the market is a little more relaxed and demand is less strong.”

In September, the median sales price for a home in the city and greater Chicago area was $350,000, down slightly from $355,000 in August, according to data from Illinois Realtors, a professional association of real estate agents. The statewide median sales price in September was $290,000, down slightly from $295,000 in August. Data from Illinois Realtors showed that median sales prices rose more than 7% year over year in the city, metro area and statewide in September.

The national median sales price for existing homes — which excludes new homes — was $404,500, the 15th straight month of year-over-year price increases, according to data from the National Association of Realtors. The inventory of homes for sale increased in September compared to August, both locally and nationally, according to data from Illinois Realtors and the NAR.

Data from Freddie Mac shows that the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage began its downward trend in May, with a steeper decline between July and September. Average rates reached their lowest level in two years at 6.08% in the last week of September.

As workers return to the office, residents return to Chicago and other cities, driving up real estate prices.

Although she saw some buyers recommitting toward the end of September as mortgage rates continued to fall, Erika Villegas, president of the Chicago Association of Realtors, said she has potential buyers who are still struggling with ongoing inventory and affordability issues. Many families are also generally inclined to stay put while children return to school, she said.

Adam Stempel, 43, is an example of a potential buyer who decided to opt out of his home search this summer.

Stempel and his wife purchased their four-bedroom home in west suburban Villa Park in 2009 and are looking to move to a community with higher-rated schools for their two children and that better reflects their age group. Their current mortgage rate is around 3%.

Earlier this year, they were looking at homes in various suburban neighborhoods, including Oak Brook, Clarendon Hills and Hinsdale. But a combination of factors – including high house prices and mortgage rates, dissatisfaction with the inventory of homes on the market and their decision to send one of their children to school private – led them to put their housing search on hold until next year. said Stempel. Stempel’s budget tops out at $1.2 million, which he called excessive, and he said he wants a home that matches what he has in his current space, with amenities like an outdoor living space and a finished basement.

“It’s very difficult for us in the sense that you make one place your home and then when you look for the next one, you kind of expect it to be a little bit better,” Stempel said, who works in technology. “And I just don’t think there was inventory at our price point that would make it better.”

As for the market for the rest of the year, some industry players remain optimistic, others not.

Crystal Tran, who leads a team of real estate agents at @properties Christie’s International Real Estate and has been in the industry for more than a dozen years, said she has seen more and more buyers and sellers start flooding in as rates fell, but people might sit tight until after the election.

“I think right after the election it’s really going to get a boost,” Tran said. “As rates go down, and if they continue to go down, people who we contacted last year or two years ago who wanted to buy but couldn’t find a house or couldn’t really get along afford the type of house that they wanted to buy maybe they wanted to be able to afford to buy that house now that rates have come down a little bit.

But Redfin’s Fairweather is less certain. With recent changes to real estate agent commissions, climate change-induced hurricanes and fluctuating mortgage rates, there are plenty of reasons to be uncertain for buyers and sellers, she said.

“I think it’s never good for the markets when there’s uncertainty,” Fairweather said. “(After the election), I think some uncertainty will go away, but not all of it.”

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