At the closing of COP28 in Abu Dhabi last December, with great fanfare, a statement by President Sultan Al-Jaber seemed lost in the din.

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This message goes to the heart of the climate crisis, because despite decades of climate negotiations and commitments, global greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise, reaching an unprecedented level of 57.1 GtCO2e in 2023 This 1.3% increase over 2022 levels indicates that the world is moving in precisely the wrong direction at a time when drastic emissions reductions are desperately needed.

While countries have made increasingly ambitious commitments, the implementation gap between pledges and actual policies continues to widen.

The report found that the increase in total greenhouse gas emissions was above average compared to 2022 levels, at 1.3%. During the decade preceding the Covid-19 pandemic (2010-2019), growth in GHG emissions averaged 0.8% per year.

The window for limiting warming to 1.5°C, the most ambitious objective of the Paris Agreement, is rapidly closing.

Current policies put us on a path to catastrophic warming of 3.1°C, while even the most optimistic scenario of countries keeping all their promises would only limit warming to 1.9°C.

To keep global warming below 1.5°C, emissions must decrease by 42% by 2030 compared to 2019 levels. For 2°C, emissions must decrease by 28% by 2030. In nationally determined contribution targets for 2035, emissions must decrease by 57% for 1.5°C and 37% for 2°C, UNEP said.

Perhaps most worrying is the trajectory of the G20 countries, which account for 77% of global emissions. The report says that eleven G20 members are not on track to meet their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) targets and that, collectively, their commitments fall well short of aligned cost-effective and equitable pathways. on the Paris Agreement.

This reality check is likely what prompted UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen to call for a global mobilization for climate action.

“The time for the climate crisis has arrived. We need global mobilization on a scale and pace never before seen – now, before the next round of climate commitments – otherwise the 1.5 degree Celsius target will soon be dead and well below of 2 degrees Celsius will take its place in the intensive care unit. “Andersen said in a statement.

Some, however, might argue that the report is not entirely pessimistic. It presents compelling evidence that the technical and economic means exist to close the emissions gap.

Remarkably, two proven technologies – solar photovoltaics and wind power – could deliver 27% of the required emissions reductions by 2030 and 38% by 2035. Combined with forestry measures such as deforestation and improved forest management, which could contribute an additional 19-20% reductions, these readily available solutions could lead to significant progress. But it was rare for countries to heed these suggestions in the past.

The financial challenge, although significant, is not insurmountable.

The report estimates that aligning with 1.5°C trajectories requires a six-fold increase in mitigation investments, with additional investment needs of between $0.9 and $2.1 trillion per year. Although these numbers seem daunting, they represent a manageable portion of the global economy and financial markets, which is approaching $110 trillion.

The timing of this report is particularly important as countries prepare their next round of NDCs, scheduled for February 2025. These NDCs are to include targets for 2035 and will be crucial in determining whether the world can get on track to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement. The report provides clear guidance for these submissions, highlighting the need for comprehensive coverage of all gases and sectors, specific quantitative targets, detailed implementation plans and clear accountability mechanisms.

The report also recognizes the need for differentiated approaches based on national circumstances and development needs. This highlights the crucial role of international support and finance in enabling ambitious climate action in developing economies.

The 2024 Emissions Gap Report serves as both a warning and a roadmap. This demonstrates that while the challenge of closing the emissions gap is daunting, it remains technically and economically feasible. The key question now is whether governments, particularly those of G20 countries, will finally manage to translate their ambitious commitments into concrete actions and implementations. The next round of NDCs will be a crucial test of this commitment and may well determine the future trajectory of global climate action.

“I urge every nation: no more hot wind, please. Take advantage of the upcoming COP29 negotiations in Baku, Azerbaijan, to step up action now, lay the groundwork for stronger NDCs, and then do everything in your power to embark on a path to a 1.5 degree Celsius,” Andersen said.

Tannu Jain, Chief Content Producer of HT, selects climate news from around the world and analyzes its impact using connected reporting, research and expert keynotes.