President-elect Donald Trump’s campaign was quite clear: Companies that ship goods to the United States would face tariffs of 10 to 20 percent, while Chinese companies imports would get a big 60% tax.

The idea was that tariffs on foreign-made goods would encourage more manufacturing within U.S. borders, which would create more factory jobs. Trump’s tariffs are still just campaign promises, but businesses are already trying to figure out how to adjust their operations if new fees take effect.

Two days after the election, executives at the Steve Madden shoe brand announced they would accelerate a plan to reduce Chinese production by 45% next year and move manufacturing to Cambodia, Vietnam, Mexico and Brazil. Executives of other companies, including Columbia Sportswear, Stanley Black & Decker, beauty elf And more – say their costs will certainly increase. Philip Daniele, CEO of auto parts retailer AutoZone, told Business Insider“We will pass these tariff costs on to the consumer”.

There are similar concerns in Colorado, said Jessica Cowden, marketing director at Manufacturer’s Edge, a Lakewood-based organization that works with 150 to 250 Colorado manufacturing companies each year.

“Many say they are stocking up and increasing their inventories of imported parts and products to get ahead of tariffs,” Cowden said. “Hopefully this will save them money once tariffs are imposed, but excess inventory presents its own challenges, including blocking cash flow. So it’s a balancing act.

The companies were through this Before. Tariffs on Chinese imports during the first Trump the administration had some local businesses reshuffling of supply lines by 2019. Some tariffs remained in effect under the Biden administration. But while there was an initial drop in the value of Colorado’s imports just after Trump’s tariffs took effect, the pandemic changed everything. consumer demand has increased for furniture and other household items usually manufactured abroad.

The value of imports to Colorado in September was $12.9 billion, according to U.S. Census data. That’s almost what it was for all of 2019.

Tariffs are taxes because they are fees collected by governments. Although the fees target those outside the United States, it’s the American consumer who often ends up footing the bill, said Alexandre Padilla, chair of the economics department at Metropolitan State University in Denver.

A classic example, Padilla said, is washing machines, which were hit by Trump’s tariffs in 2018. Whirlpool Corp. celebrated the rates because the Michigan company built washing machines in the United States. But other tariffs on the raw steel and aluminum used by Whirlpool to build the machines caused the company to increase prices for customers.

“The main argument made by economists in general is that if the idea is to lower the price of goods and services for the lower and middle classes,” Padilla said, “paying tariffs is certainly not the solution”.

Ripple effects are not taken into account, he said. High tariffs could trigger a trade war. After Trump’s 2018 tariffs, China added a 25% tax on soybeans. Colorado corn farmers felt the pain because Midwest soybean farmers switched to growing corn, which lowers prices for local farmers and affected families in these communities.

“It may be true that China lost more than the United States in the trade war, but overall,” Padilla said, “those who foot the bill remain the consumers.”