The southern states of the United States are often called the Sun Belt for the obvious reason that they have a warmer climate than those to the north.

There are four swing states in the South in this election: Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina.

Between them, they could award 49 electoral college votes to a candidate who wins all four.

As with the Rust Belt, Harris would likely become president if she won all four.

If Trump swept all the key Sun Belt states, he would still need one more state.

However, while the margin of victory would be more comfortable than sweeping the Rust Belt, the path to victory seems unlikely for Harris, as Democrats have not won these four states since Harry Truman’s election in 1948 .

Unlike Democrats, Republicans have a history of sweeping these states. Since the Civil Rights Act changed the political map in the 1960s: Presidents Nixon, Reagan, Bush and Bush Jr. each won these four states in one or more elections.

There are two key groups that could help decide the Sun Belt’s results: Black and Latino voters.

In Georgia and North Carolina, a high percentage of eligible voters are black. Harris hopes she can match Joe Biden’s performance with these voters; he won 92% of all black votes in the United States in 2020, but some recent polls suggest Harris is struggling to achieve similar numbers.

Arizona and Nevada have rapidly growing Latino populations, and for a long time, Democrats assumed that an increase in the number of Latino voters in any state would automatically increase their chances of winning. But Donald Trump surprised many by making inroads with Latin American voters in the last two elections, his perceived strength on the economy being particularly attractive.

However, Republicans worry that widely reported comments about Puerto Ricans and other Latinos by speakers at Trump’s recent rally at Madison Square Garden, which lean heavily on racist stereotypes, could reverse some of those gains.

TRUMP KEY STATE: North Carolina

Donald Trump held North Carolina in the last two elections and it was not considered a swing state until Kamala Harris took over the Democratic ticket.

If Trump fails to hold North Carolina, his path to the White House would become much more difficult because he would need to win at least two of the Rust Belt states and two more in the Sun Belt.

The state has only voted for the Democratic candidate once since 1980 – for President Obama in 2008.

But there’s a chance Harris could take it if she can get black voters to turn out, as they did for Obama, and grab votes from the recent influx of college-educated voters .

In pursuit of persuasive elements

Harris campaign aides estimate that about 10 percent of voters in the seven battleground states are still convincing, and they haven’t given up on changing hearts and minds in an election where even the slightest shift in a swing state could have major electoral implications. In North Carolina, a state where Democrats still believe they can turn around despite an uphill battle, Harris focused on college-educated, suburban Republican women who are turned off by the party’s rhetoric. former president. Meanwhile, the Trump campaign has become more confident about Georgia and North Carolina, and the former president also has his sights set on becoming the first Republican presidential candidate to win Nevada since George W. Bush won it in 2004.

Courtney Subramanian

Deputy Editor, BBC News, Washington