President-elect Donald Asset has repeatedly declared that he will end the war that Russia has inflicted on Ukraine. He would supposedly make a deal (?!) and force Ukraine and Russia into a “negotiated” settlement at a table he would set. Participants in the upcoming “negotiations,” and the entire world, are wondering what the results might look like.

If Trump even succeeds in organizing such negotiations (both sides have a list of mutually exclusive non-negotiable positions) and IF these negotiations result in an outcome that Ukraine considers fair and acceptable, while Russia is unable to claim any form of victory for his ailing country, a designed war of belligerent conquest, filled with war crimes and much loss of life, then the applause should be reminiscent of the average New York City ticker tape parade .

Is optimism justified? Trump’s recent flurry of cabinet appointments is one indication. But don’t break out the confetti yet.

When Trump takes office in January 2025, he will find the conditions that should enable such a victory. Ukraine – which has well less than a third of Russia’s population (around 37 million compared to 143 million) – managed to thwart the vaunted Russian military in its efforts to defeat them for three years.

The Russians have, by some estimates, suffered a punishment at the hands of feisty Ukraine that could be described as embarrassing, if not decimating, to say the least.

Other topics of interest

First North Korean officer confirmed injured in Kursk

Thousands of North Korean troops are believed to be fighting alongside Russian forces.

But Russian President Vladimir Putin knows that US Vice President-elect JD Vance, President Mike Johnson, Trump himself and most of his cabinet nominees (many of whom are unqualified and have an anti-Ukraine bias known) are all singing the same song: “We don’t want to pay for this anymore and we want it to stop. » Is this regardless of the consequences?

Putin feels that his goals are about to be baked into the cake already. He will play “hard to get” at the table, having already said he is “ready for peace talks, but only if his previous demands are met for Ukraine to submit to Russian control.” (Wall Street Journal, November 11, 2024: “Moscow and kyiv intensify war…”)

Once you unpack the rhetoric of disinformation, it becomes clear that Putin’s goal is to build an empire through military force and deceptive diplomacy. He doesn’t want peace at all, but he knows how to make it a mirage for any ongoing negotiations.

Russia wants to keep all the land it has stolen and wants Russian citizens to occupy 20%(+) of Ukraine’s sovereign territory. He wants to dictate that Ukraine will be neutral (not in NATO and therefore vulnerable), that sanctions will stop and that it will not be held responsible for a single ruble for anything it has done.

A foreign policy cannonball for the free world?

With Vance, Gaetz and Gabbard on board, you can almost visualize the nods from the new Trump administration. The ongoing “negotiations” may actually turn out to be nothing more than a charade, a frog pushing Ukraine to the table to insist that it sign its own surrender terms.

Negotiations between Russia and Ukraine would likely constitute the “Foreign Policy Super Bowl” of Trump’s entire four-year term. There is a palpable sense that Trump’s definition of “success” is quite different from that of most Western governments.

He would probably smile big and declare victory if the resulting ceasefire terms would be at least inconvenient for Russia (for which he would remain on Putin’s Christmas card list) and at best very precarious for Ukraine (who is aware that the value of Putin’s word or signature can be described only in terms of monopoly currency).

If the Trump/Vance camp successfully completes its “negotiations” in such a way that congratulatory phone calls arrive from Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico and Chinese leader Xi Jinping, it will be time for the rest of NATO, Taiwan and South Korea will start to worry on a whole new level. If so, Trump will post his own applause on “Truth” Social, while the rest of the free world struggles with the consequences of a disastrous diplomatic failure comparable to Neville Chamberlain’s memorable feat in Munich in 1938. Or worse .

President Volodymyr Zelensky has a fiduciary responsibility for the well-being of his nation. It can be expected to reject any engagement that is manifestly dangerous to its population and sovereign borders. He knows that “peace at all costs” is not worth the price – and has been proven throughout history to be a trap.

Depending on the level of rigidity that accompanies the unacceptable conditions it is being pushed into, Ukraine’s only option may well be to walk away and take its chances fighting – without American support (which, while important , managed to be a frustrating disappointment anyway). ).

The shards would then fall where they may, but at least Ukraine would not have been dragged into an inevitable situation, disappearing behind the new version of the Iron Curtain built by Putin. If Ukraine withdraws, then the Trump administration and Russia could, in harmony, claim that Ukraine refused to negotiate and is guilty of losing its chance at a “negotiated settlement.”

Team Trump would never admit it, as they close the checkbook and fold the tablecloth, but in this scenario they would then have recorded a huge, world-class diplomatic failure. This would rank very well with the smooth US exit from Vietnam and the smooth US exit from Afghanistan. Or worse.

It’s not too late to push the rudder of this Titanic. What would it take for this? Perhaps a wave of influential voices confirming that Trump can secure one of two possible positions in the history books in perpetuity. He can choose to become known forever as a strong leader who played hardball with Russia as a pillar of democracy – deserving of this parade of ticker tapes – or, alternatively, as a duplicitous “useful idiot” on Putin’s behalf.

A lot can happen between the grand opening and sending out the invitations to the table with little flags and pens waiting to be used. I still hope for what we (the West, including Ukraine) can call a worthy success, but don’t start planning the parade route yet.

The opinions expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily originate from Kyiv Post.