The year 2027 has become an obsession for Washington. This is the year that U.S. intelligence projects that China will be ready and capable of invading Taiwan.

It could happen sooner, as evidenced by military exercises in the South China Sea. Or it might not happen at all.

But President-elect Donald Trump’s victory on Tuesday leaves something to be desired. the Taiwanese wondering whether the United States would stand up for itself under a new, hands-off administration.

Trump’s public comments could suggest he would not be willing to deploy troops on the ground to take on another global superpower in defense of a small island democracy.

“I think Taiwan should pay us for our defense,” Trump told Bloomberg Businessweek in June.

“You know, we are no different from an insurance company. Taiwan doesn’t give us anything,” he added.

In October, he again complained about U.S. aid to Taiwan and accused the nation of “stealing” the U.S. microchip industry. “You know, Taiwan, they stole our chip business,” Trump said during his appearance on the Joe Rogan podcast.

President-elect Donald Trump’s victory Tuesday leaves Taiwanese wondering whether the United States would come to their defense under a new, less interventionist-minded administration. (Angela Weiss/AFP via Getty Images)

“They want us to protect them, and they want protection. They don’t pay us money for protection, you know. The mob makes you pay money, right? But with these countries that we protect, I received hundreds of billions of dollars from NATO countries who never paid us.

Trump’s close advisers are far more hawkish on the Taiwan issue than the president-elect’s comments suggest, according to Lyle Goldstein, director of Asia engagement at Defense Priorities.

“Over the last four years of Trump, there has been a pretty strong stance in favor of Taiwan’s defense through various actions taken primarily, I think, through his advisors,” Goldstein said.

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When asked in October if he would defend Taiwan Invasion of China, Trump told the Wall Street Journal: “I wouldn’t have to, because he respects me and he knows I’m crazy.”

When asked how he would convince Xi to avoid such an invasion, Trump replied: “I would say: if you go to Taiwan, I’m sorry for doing that, I’m going to tax you” – i.e. say impose customs duties – “at 150%.” % to 200%.”

It could even ban trade between the two nations.

A Chinese Coast Guard boat passes near the coast of the Matsu Islands in Taiwan on Monday, October 14. (Taiwan Coast Guard/AP)

He praised his relationship with Xi. “I had a very strong relationship with him. He was actually a very good friend, I don’t want to say friend – I don’t want to be silly, ‘He was my friend’ – but I I got along very well with him. He stayed at Mar-a-Lago with me, so we got to know each other very well. He’s a very fierce person.”

The United States regularly sends military equipment to Taiwan, and this is expected to continue under the next administration. In October, the Biden administration approved $2 billion in arms sales in Taiwan, including radar systems and three advanced national surface-to-air missile systems.

With drone capabilities rapidly improving, the United States could assist Taiwan in an invasion without deploying troops to the region.

“I want to turn the Taiwan Strait into an unmanned hellscape using a number of classified capabilities,” said Adm. Samuel Paparo, commander of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command. said The Washington Post at the International Institute for Strategic Studies Shangri-La Dialogue Summit.

In doing so, he said, “I can make their lives completely miserable for a month, which gives me time for the rest.” »

But restraint groups hope Trump will focus on economic war with China rather than military war. Trump has threatened to impose across-the-board tariffs of 60% on Chinese goods.

A Kuang Hua VI-class missile boat of the Taiwan Navy moves into Keelung Port, Taiwan, Monday, October 14. (Reuters/Tyrone Siu)

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“I think his approach to China will be very tough economically,” Goldstein said. “But – I hope in any case – to ease tensions on a diplomatic and military level.“

“We don’t have this alliance with Taiwan,” Goldstein continued. “We have an alliance with Japan. And with the Philippines. We may want to redouble our efforts to protect our allies… the Taiwan issue is a powder keg – it is extremely dangerous. And we should play with a lot here caution.”

The United States has long recognized a The One China Policy and pursued a policy of strategic ambiguity, refusing to reveal whether it would come to Taiwan’s defense in an all-out war.

Biden seemed to want to declare his intention to defend Taiwan against China. Its staff was forced to return to a series of spontaneous declarations this seemed to undermine strategic ambiguity.

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“The United States defends peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait,” the president said said at West Point in May. He added clearly: “I have always been prepared to use force when necessary to protect our nation, our allies, our fundamental interests.”