There’s a classic sketch by comedian Tim Robinson in which a car shaped like a hot dog crashes into a store. As the crowd gathers to find out what’s going on, a man dressed in an oversized hot dog costume claims it’s not his car.

“We’re all trying to find the guy who did this,” he says in just as quick a moment. became a meme.

THURSDAY, Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia was the hot dog guy personified as he explained why Vice President Kamala Harris lost the presidential election. In an interview with Washington, D.C., favored publication Punchbowl News, he discussed the president That of Joe Biden The Build Back Better bill, a $3.5 trillion proposal to do everything from combating climate change to helping working-class families.

“When I first (warned) about inflation, they all said I was crazy,” Manchin said.

To be fair, he is right that inflation was a factor in that of Donald Trump earn. Although inflation appears to have calmed from its recent highs, voters are clearly still frustrated by the rising prices that began during the coronavirus pandemic and have transferred that anger onto the ruling party in elections to around the world, like several people have noticed since Tuesday.

But it was strange for Manchin to bring it up in the context of his opposition to Biden’s signature proposal. because it didn’t happen. And the reason it failed was because Manchin opposed it. Build Back Better was the hot dog car that crashed through the store window, and Manchin was the guy driving it.

To both of their credit, Biden and Manchin then worked together in secret to craft a smaller $700 billion bill, renamed the Inflation Reduction Act, which has become an integral part of Biden’s legacy — at least until ‘until Trump starts to undo pieces of it. when he takes office in January.

Would the larger bill have worsened inflation, as Manchin claimed? This is a question for economists. But even if the answer is yes, it doesn’t matter politically, because Harris lost every swing state anyway. Rather, the counterfactual question to ask is: Would Biden and Harris have been in a better position if Build Back Better had passed?

At the heart of this question is a debate that has been playing out in wackier Democratic circles since 2021. Coined by commentator Matt Stoller, the idea is called deliverismand that basically means you can get re-elected by getting things done. “Get it done and it will help you win the election,” he said. wrote. “Don’t deliver and you lose.”

Tuesday’s results appear to be a pretty strong rejection of that idea. Trump failed to keep more than half of his promises during his first term, by one countincluding major ideas like repealing the Affordable Care Act, building a wall with Mexico, and rebuilding infrastructure. He ruled in a chaotic manner, with higher turnover within his office and more important appointments than any president since Ronald Reagan. And even though the pandemic is largely to blame, he still had worst job losses in a single quarter since records began in 1939.

Even though Trump hasn’t kept his promises, Biden has largely done so, especially when it comes to some of his promises.

In addition to the Inflation Reduction Act, his legislative record includes a pandemic recovery measure, massive spending on infrastructure And a boost to domestic manufacturing of superconductors. He also made many small kitchen projects, including a cap on the price of insulin, Reducing Prescription Drug Costs for Medicare Beneficiaries And a crackdown on unwanted fees. He is about to end his mandate have added jobs every month to the officesomething no president has done since records began in 1939.

None of this helped. that of Biden approval rating has been underwater since September 2021, he was on track to lose to Trump in the presidential election, and many Democrats are now blame his decision not giving up early because of losing Harris.

So what could Biden have done differently? The poorly managed end to the war in Afghanistan appears to have been a major turning point, as that was when approval ratings first fell. This seems to have convinced a number of Americans that he, too, was not handling things well at home. It is now also clear that he should have dropped out sooner and given the party time to run a competitive primary campaign, which could have led to a different candidate or given Harris a chance to better distance herself from Biden.

But if we want to debate what Biden should have done to put the Democratic ticket in a better position, we should start with what he wanted to do and couldn’t do. This includes all provisions of the Build Back Better bill that Manchin killed that were not included in the Inflation Reduction Act.

The list includes most of the social safety net expansion measures Biden campaigned on: universal preschool; help with childcare and elderly care costs; dental, vision and hearing coverage under Medicare; 12 weeks of paid family leave; more affordable housing; free community college tuition; health insurance for low-income families; and the extension of a temporary child tax credit that has proven effective lifted 3 million children out of poverty.

The problem with liberalism is that it assumes voters will notice if you govern well. But people are busy. They increasingly get their news from partisan sources and social media, and they no longer trust objective data on topics like the economy. How will they know that you govern well? To break through this wall of indifference, a president must not only deliver on his promises, but also do so in such a tangible way that voters notice and connect the results to the president’s actions. You might call it straight-laced bookishness.

Stimulus checks are a good example. In an unprecedented move, Trump put your name on stimulus checks sent at the start of the pandemic. Biden didn’t do it. Was this a cheap publicity stunt on Trump’s part? Yeah, but it sure didn’t hurt.

In the end, inflation may have weighed on Biden and Harris so much that there was nothing they could do. But if there was anything that could have helped turn the tide, it would have been the kind of immediate, obvious benefits like universal preschool, paid leave, and free college, delivered directly to voters with all the credit due to the president. Thanks to Manchin, the Biden-Harris administration couldn’t keep its promises and Harris lost.

And like the man said, we’re all trying to find the guy who did this.