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Potential Japan kingmaker Ishiba wants tax breaks for workers – BNN Bloomberg
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Potential Japan kingmaker Ishiba wants tax breaks for workers – BNN Bloomberg

(Bloomberg) — Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba may realize that the price of winning the support of a small opposition party and staying in power after a major electoral setback is offering tax relief to part-time workers.

After the ruling coalition’s poor performance in Sunday’s election, Ishiba must find allies before next month’s vote, and the spotlight is on the People’s Democratic Party. The group, led by Yuichiro Tamaki, quadrupled its presence in parliament after campaigning for a policy to extend tax-free income benefits for part-time workers.

The DPP’s 28 votes would be the easiest path to a majority for Ishiba’s Liberal Democratic Party and its coalition partner Komeito, who together lost 18 seats of the 233 required to pass a law. With Japan grappling with the largest debt load in the developed world, accepting a loss of revenue in exchange for support might be the most realistic path forward.

Tamaki wants to increase the tax-free annual income limit for part-time workers from 1.03 million yen ($6,700) to 1.78 million yen. He said this would encourage part-time employees to work longer because they wouldn’t have to pay income tax until they reached a higher income threshold. Under his proposal, employed spouses of part-time workers would also remain eligible for dependent tax breaks generally worth 380,000 yen per year, reducing the inconvenience of their partners’ overtime work.

A higher cap would help alleviate the country’s labor shortage while increasing household incomes, Tamaki says. On the other hand, it would reduce tax revenues for a government that keeps increasing its spending and has another supplementary budget in the works.

“This is the most important point on the DPP’s policy agenda and so there is a good chance that Ishiba will accept it,” said Koya Miyamae, an economist at SMBC Nikko Securities Inc.

The change, if implemented, would deprive the government of about 103 billion yen in tax revenue, estimates Takahide Kiuchi, executive economist at the Nomura Research Institute. But because people will likely save most of the tax cuts, it will likely only increase gross domestic product by 21.7 trillion yen, or 0.004% of annual nominal GDP, he wrote in a note Tuesday .

Ishiba is set to call on the DPP to form a “partial coalition,” the Yomiuri newspaper said Tuesday, citing an unidentified LDP official. Tamaki reiterated Tuesday morning that he is not considering forming a coalition with Ishiba’s LDP, although he is open to negotiations on political issues. Tamaki said he still intended to put his own name forward in the vote for prime minister, which the Yomiuri said is expected to take place on November 11.

“I don’t know what impact the increase in the cap will have, but it will result in a loss of tax revenue,” said Harumi Taguchi, senior economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence. “This will fuel uncertainty about how to generate revenue for necessary spending.”

Still, raising the cap could be an easier sell for the ruling coalition than changing tax rates and is perhaps the most acceptable political deal Ishiba can sign to remain prime minister.

The Constitutional Democratic Party won the most seats among opposition parties with 148, but its leader, former Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda, has ruled out a grand coalition with the LDP.

The Japan Innovation Party, with 38 seats, calls for sales tax to be set at 8 percent across the board, transforming Osaka into a unified metropolitan area and increasing the responsibilities of the Bank of Japan , claims that represent much heavier lifting. Another obstacle to cooperation is friction between the party and Komeito.

The DPP also rejected a request for a meeting with the Constitutional Democratic Party, broadcaster FNN said Tuesday, citing an unidentified person. The CDP was considering forming a rival coalition.

–With help from Isabel Reynolds and Yuko Takeo.

(Updates with estimates of the impact of tax breaks.)

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