Analysts speculated earlier this year that the iPhone 16 and its AI capabilities would trigger a new upgrade. super cycle. Encouraged by Apple Intelligence’s innovative features, customers were expected to purchase new devices in record numbers, even if their current iPhone was still in perfect working order.

Within weeks of launch, however, much of that enthusiasm seemed to have fizzled. In Germany, for example, we found it easy to obtain the new phones, either from an Apple Store or from Amazon, the latter of which was able to deliver the device the following week. In the UK, the cheapest configuration of the iPhone 16 Pro is currently available for next day delivery. All this is a far cry from the stock shortages that we usually encounter when an iPhone is a spectacular success.

One possible reason the iPhone 16 hasn’t sparked a super cycle is the slow introduction of Apple Intelligence. The first features were not available until several weeks after launch in the United States and Canada, while European users might have to wait up to a year. If AI was the key to success, delaying AI could have been a critical mistake.

A cycle of innovation

Another problem could be the psychology of consumerism: for many buyers, it’s not what’s inside that matters, but the exterior design. An abstract upgrade such as a 40% increase in performance is less appealing than new colors, shapes, and materials. And this is confirmed by sales data: the greatest progress has been made by the iPhone generations, which have brought notable changes in shape or dimensions.

We represented Apple’s iPhone sales in a chart (bars) and also calculated the size of the difference in percentage compared to the same quarter of the previous year (line). Since Apple has been releasing iPhones in the fall since the iPhone 4s in 2011, new models contribute significantly to sales in the first quarter of each fiscal year: that’s where you’ll see the biggest bars. But in terms of percentage differences, the iPhone 6 Plus, iPhone X, and iPhone 12 have made the biggest jump over previous generations.

Why were these models the big winners? Because of the design. THE iPhone6 ​​Plusfor example, it was the first time Apple introduced a larger model alongside the full-size model; This is a very noticeable change. (Two years earlier, the iPhone 5 had already increased the screen diagonal from 3.5 to 4 inches, but it’s a bit more subtle.)

For the iPhoneXan anniversary model, Apple moved to a borderless design, replacing the Home button and Touch ID with Face ID facial recognition for biometric authentication. The notch provided for this purpose quickly became a recognizable, even iconic element. And the iPhone12 was the first square-edged smartphone since production of the iPhone 5S stopped six years ago. Although the iPhone 13 is the best-performing iPhone model to date in terms of pure sales, the 12 sold 17% better than its predecessor, while the 13 only grew 9%. The iPhone 12 was a big step forward for the company.

Anyron Copeman / Foundry

Looking down the road

So where does the iPhone 16 stand? It offers Apple Intelligence, that’s right. But it wasn’t available at launch, many features have yet to arrive, and for a large portion of potential buyers living outside the US, it’s not available at all. In terms of design changes, the iPhone 16 offers very little new.

Compare that to launches planned for 2025. If rumors about the iPhone 17 Air are true – and they’ve been swirling for over six months now – then this will be the first model in five years to feature a radically new design, similar to the razor-thin models of the M4 iPad Pro. Add in a striking color, like the Product Red that dropped with the iPhone 14, and it’s sure to be a bestseller.

Our interest and optimism are further aroused by the latest developments at Apple. John Ternus’ hardware team has seen some major promotions in recent days: Richard Dinh, for example, became vice president of iPhone product design. Ternus himself promised radical innovations in iPhone design in an internal memo, calling the roadmap “the most ambitious in the history of the product.”

So things are improving. But not until next year.