LONDON: Japan’s elections could cause further market swings in a year in which countries home to half the world’s population will have voted. But markets remain obsessed with the US presidential election – the race that matters most to investors and world leaders.

Here is a selection of recent and upcoming votes and their impact on the markets.

DEVELOPED MARKETS

1. JAPAN

An uncertain outcome of Sunday’s elections could generate new shocks on markets still reeling from the Bank of Japan’s surprise rate hike in July.

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba supports normalizing monetary policy to boost the yen and bank profits. But its recent unpopularity suggests Japan is heading toward a coalition government, and some opposition parties want the stimulus measures to continue.

This could complicate the BoJ’s policy outlook, increasing the yen’s volatility. Bets on the yen, which trades at nearly 152 to the dollar, have moved quickly from weakness to gains since July. The BoJ meeting on October 31 could be caught in the crosshairs of the coalition negotiations.

2. UNITED STATES

Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris and former Republican President Donald Trump are in a standoff ahead of the November 5 US election.

Traders are taking seriously the chances of a Trump victory, which could lead to higher tariffs. This has fueled support for the dollar, as rising consumer prices could reduce rate cuts in the United States.

Bets on Trump’s tax cuts helped propel U.S. stocks to record highs, but the rally stalled amid looming uncertainty. Gold is near record highs in safe-haven buying, and the VIX index of expected stock market movements is sitting above its 2024 average.

Investors are also bracing for a contested outcome, if the results are close.

3. GREAT BRITAIN

Britain’s October 30 budget could determine whether investors maintain their post-election optimism or succumb to concerns over Finance Minister Rachel Reeves’ bleak analysis of the economy.

July’s landslide victory raised hopes that the new Labor government would deliver on promises to control borrowing, repair crumbling public services and boost investment.

Since then, Labour’s pledge not to raise taxes on workers has sparked fears of raids on investment gains draining more capital from listed companies and Reeves has also suggested borrowing will increase.

4. EURO ZONE

The eurosceptic, Russia-friendly Freedom Party won September’s parliamentary elections, the latest far-right wave to hit the continent, disrupting fiscal policy as major economies stagnate.

In debt-ridden France, Prime Minister Michel Barnier’s new minority government could rely on the approval of the far right to pass the budget after snap summer elections.

Portugal’s center-right minority government may also need the support of the far-right Chega party, which performed well in March elections, for its first budget.

And German political parties are trying to prevent the far-right Alternative for Germany from coming to power in Thuringia after its victory in state elections last month.

DEVELOPING MARKETS

1. LATIN AMERICA

A pension reform bill up for grabs in Uruguay’s Oct. 27 election, aimed at lowering the retirement age, has sent the peso tumbling as investors worry about its fiscal cost.

The Mexican peso has also fluctuated since June elections elevated Claudia Sheinbaum, Mexico’s first female president, and gave her an unexpected supermajority.

But nothing threatens the region like a possible Trump victory.

Trump has flagged tariffs of more than 200 percent on Mexican vehicle imports; his vice-presidential candidate, JD Vance, has proposed taxing remittances, which account for about a quarter of many economies, at 10 percent.

2. EASTERN EUROPE

Saturday’s parliamentary elections in Georgia, where the ruling Georgian Dream party is seen as close to Russia, are seen as a clash between Russia’s appeal and that of the West.

Moldovan voters narrowly supported EU membership in an October 20 referendum clouded by allegations of Russian-backed interference, and President Maia Sandu, who supported the referendum, will face a second round on November 3.

The Romanian elections of November and December repeat the Russia versus Europe discourse. The far-right Alliance for the Unification of Romanians, opposed to military aid to Ukraine, comes second in the polls.

Analysts say polarization in domestic politics could slow down structural reforms.

Bulgarians will go to the polls on Sunday for the seventh snap election in four years.

3. SRI LANKA

Snap parliamentary elections on November 14 could determine whether newly elected President Anura Kumara Dissanayake can deliver on his campaign promises to cut taxes and help the poor.

Dissanayake’s Marxist-leaning coalition currently holds only three parliamentary seats. Investors feared Dissanayake would break a bondholder debt deal and seek to rework a crucial IMF bailout plan. Instead, the Dissanayake government has largely stayed the course on both.

4. AFRICA

Ghana’s economic crisis will dominate the December 7 presidential election in the gold and cocoa exporting country.

He managed to finalize a $30 billion foreign debt restructuring before the vote.

But there are fears of excessive spending ahead of the elections, which Ghana must avoid to stay on track with its $3 billion IMF bailout.

Elsewhere, Mozambique’s dollar bonds fell after gunmen killed an opposition lawyer and a party official following the disputed October 9 presidential election in which the ruling party, the Frelimo retained power.

Mozambique’s financial woes have prompted warnings that it could miss domestic debt payments or implement a distressed debt swap.