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Can Army make the College Football Playoff? How Notre Dame affects the Black Knights’ chances in the CFP

Umito November 23, 2024

Military football will play one of its biggest games in recent memory on Saturday when it takes on No. 6 Notre Dame in a top-20 matchup.

17th in the ranking Black Knights (9-0, 7-0 AAC) will face the Fighting Irish (9-1) at Yankee Stadium on Saturday, in a game that could prove Army is a true College Football Playoffs contender in 2024. The undefeated Black Knights have already clinched a spot in the American Athletic Conference championship game against No. 20 Tulane, which would give them another chance at a ranked victory.

Even if Army isn’t favored against Notre Dame on Saturday, an upset would give it a much-needed boost in the eyes of the CFP committee. The Black Knights, one of three undefeated FBS teams remaining this year, were ranked No. 19 in Tuesday’s third round of rankings. For comparison, Oregon (11-0) and Indiana (10-0) were ranked No. 1 and No. 5, respectively.

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Here’s a look at the Black Knights’ CFP chances, which could be decided after their game against Notre Dame on Saturday:

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Army is still in contention for the College Football Playoff, but it’s extremely likely that it will have to beat Notre Dame on Saturday in order to have a resume on par with the other teams vying to be the fifth conference champion on higher ranked, which automatically receives an offer.

The Black Knights (9-0, 7-0 AAC) are undefeated this season, but have no ranked wins. According to ESPN FPI RankingsArmy’s record strength ranks 19th in the country, while its strength of schedule ranks 133rd out of 134 possible teams.

Its remaining schedule, however, offers Army a chance to prove its viability as a CFP contender: the Black Knights’ remaining games against No. 6 Notre Dame, UTSA and No. 20 Tulane (in the AAC Championship) ranked first. eighth-toughest remaining schedule in college football.

ESPN’s College Football Playoff Prediction Machine gives the Army an 11 percent chance of making the CFP, which ranks 21st nationally. Army’s chances are notably behind Notre Dame’s 69% chance and Tulane’s 19% chance.

The predictor, however, gives Army an 89% chance of advancing to the CFP if they win, which would include victories against the Fighting Irish, Roadrunners and Green Wave. Army would have a 44% chance of advancing to the CFP if it fell to Notre Dame on Saturday, but prevailed and won the AAC championship against Tulane.

It’s important to note that Army’s rivalry game against Navy won’t help its CFP chances, as the game will take place on Dec. 14, six days after the 12 teams are finalized. If Army wins and makes the playoffs, its spot in the 12 teams would already be fixed, regardless of the outcome of the rivalry game.

Army will most likely have to win to have a chance in the 12-team bracket, as it will need to edge out both the Big 12 champion and Boise State — which is expected to prevail and win the Mountain West — as one or the other. the fourth or fifth highest ranked conference champion in the final CFP rankings.

To that end, the Black Knights should root for the Broncos to lose at least one more game to feel comfortable in their potential CFP ranking. Army (almost) controls its destiny in the CFP race, but a tough task against Notre Dame — which would be among the school’s biggest victories — awaits.