After an unprecedented period of drought, the region should have reason to be grateful that more rain is forecast this week.

But does this have to happen on Thanksgiving?

On the plus side, Wednesday, traditionally one of the busiest travel days of the year, should be ideal for those planning to leave the city.

Unfortunately, computer models clearly indicate that nature is going to give us a turkey Thursday with freezing, soggy rain across the region, and perhaps a little snow mixed in as close as the Lehigh Valley.

“It looks like a wet Thanksgiving,” AccuWeather meteorologist Matt Greene said. And it looks like it might rain on the parade: the morning weather, he said, “isn’t looking very good.”

This is not a done deal. The system expected to cause rain is not expected to make landfall on the West Coast until Monday or Tuesday, when it will be within sight of ground-based instruments that, at least in theory, would improve forecasts as the storm moves across across the coast. country

Forecasters are more confident that after the storm, the coldest weather of the season is likely to send low temperatures into the 20s later in the weekend or early next week, even into the frost-resistant Philadelphia International Airport, home to the official thermometer. and rain gauge.

“It’ll be like January,” said Alex Staarmann, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service’s Mount Holly office.

Will the rains end the drought in Philadelphia?

Droughts tend not to end in a hurry, and again it will likely take some time to recharge groundwater and fill reservoirs.

A horrific drought that began in May 1964, followed by extremely dry Julys and Augusts – months when humans and vegetation were thirsty and swimming pools needed filling – continued until in 1965. Both years were among the driest on record in Philadelphia according to records dating back to 1965. 1872.

But last week, the winds of seasonal change were evident, as atmospheric conditions aloft changed dramatically, Staarmann said.

After the first rainless October just a week ago, Philadelphia seemed poised to break the record for driest meteorological fall – September 1 to November 30 – now held in the fall of 1922 , when 2.37 inches was officially measured.

However, after four straight days of rain – something that hadn’t happened since August – the total since September 1 rose to 2.20 inches. Not so with flooding: Through Friday, Philadelphia’s rainfall totals were less than a fifth of what they normally would be, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration report. Middle Atlantic River Forecast Center.

The interagency US Drought Monitor to the immediate Philadelphia area and all South Jersey in “extreme drought” conditions. The Delaware River Basin Commission said last week that Delaware River levels were down 60%.

Drought advisories are in effect in Pennsylvania and New Jersey.

Don’t expect them to disappear no matter how much rain falls on Thanksgiving.

The NOAA Climate Prediction Center has an 80 to 90 percent chance that temperatures will be below normal the first week of December.

But it is also likely to lead to below-normal precipitation.