Law enforcement unions and real estate interests are teaming up to finance a costly campaign to defeat incumbent Los Angeles County District Attorney George Gascón and elect his challenger Nathan Hochman, a former federal prosecutor and lawyer for the criminal defense that promised to undo Gascón’s progressive policies.

These figures dwarf the amount of spending on Gascón, a reversal from four years ago, when criminal justice reformers across the country flooded his campaign coffers with money and carried the former cop turned victorious reformer.

Gascón is the nation’s most prominent progressive prosecutor, and the race’s results could be a bellwether for the criminal justice reform movement nationwide.

Much of the money goes to campaign ads that feature a dystopian Los Angeles plagued by crime and homelessness and that blame Gascón for the problems — unfairly, according to his supporters and criminologists.

Outside committees working to help elect Hochman raised more than $7.2 million, compared to Gascón’s $605,000, according to an analysis conducted by LAist.

A union-led coalition representing Los Angeles County sheriff’s deputies is leading the way with $1.35 million in contributions to support Hochman.

“This has become our most important race in the county,” said Derek Hsieh, executive director of the Los Angeles Deputy Sheriffs Association. The association also represents district attorney investigators.

“To first responders, the street seems out of control,” Hsieh said.

Gascón’s supporters say they have hope despite the outsized spending on Hochman.

“It’s still a relatively unknown position and both candidates are relatively unknown,” said the Rev. Zachary Hoover, who leads LA Voice Action, a multifaith community organization.

He added that Hochman would take the office “back toward tough-on-crime policies” that harm people of color and the poor.

Who are the donors?

Gascón’s agenda includes reducing mass incarceration by shortening prison terms for people convicted of nonviolent crimes and seeking early release for some people already incarcerated and considered not to pose a danger to the public. And those are some of the reasons police unions in Los Angeles County and beyond are spending to oust him.

The Sacramento-based California Correctional Peace Officers Association — the union that represents the state’s prison guards — invested $500,000.

Gascón also faces opposition within his own office. The union that represents front-line prosecutors working for Gascón contributed $60,000 to efforts to defeat him in November. The union has been one of the prosecutor’s most vocal critics – over what some see as his authoritarian management style as well as his policies.

Longtime Republican donor Gerald Marcil is leading in real estate spending to defeat Gascón. He donated $450,000. Marcil runs Palos Verdes Investments, which owns apartment complexes around Los Angeles

“This election has the greatest effect on the quality of life in Los Angeles County of any other election,” Marcil said of the district attorney race. It is joined by six-figure donations from Douglas Emmett Properties and Kilroy Realty.

Billionaire developer Rick Caruso, who built and owns The Grove and The Americana malls, contributed $250,000 to bounce Gascón back. He said the prosecutor was responsible for the crime rate.

Violent crime increased 7% in 2023 compared to 2020 in Los Angeles, the year Gascon took office, according to the state Department of Justice. More recently, violent crime has seen a downward trend.

Property crimes jumped 20% during the same period and continue to rise.

But there are two big caveats. One is COVID. Crime has increased significantly during the pandemic.

The other is the fact that these are crime trends that we’ve seen across the country – in big cities, with or without progressive prosecutors.

“People feel uncomfortable in the neighborhoods around Los Angeles,” said Caruso, a candidate for Los Angeles mayor in 2022.

One expert agreed that people feel uneasy about crime, but was unwilling to blame Gascón for the crime rate.

“I think prosecutors, who have a lot of power over individual outcomes, have a much smaller influence on the overall crime rate than police,” said Emily Owens, who chairs the UC Irvine department of criminology .

She noted that the crime rate is relatively low compared to previous decades, and argued that some of the fear is “based on one or two news stories that stir people up.”

A different political environment

Police and real estate interests opposed Gascón during his first candidacy. The difference this time is that support for Gascón is lagging – especially after his weak performance in the primaries where he finished first but with only 25% of the vote.

Gascón was elected on a progressive platform in a year that saw the police killing of George Floyd in Minneapolis and widespread street protests calling for criminal justice reform nationwide.

Gascón attracted support from across the country. George Soros alone contributed $2.25 million. This year, Soros remains absent.

Soros spokesman Michael Vachon said Soros’ attention was focused on the presidential race.

“This reflects the unprecedented challenges facing the nation and should not be misconstrued as an abandonment of Gascòn or other local leaders who are implementing effective and humane approaches to public safety,” Vachon said in a press release. “Los Angeles County District Attorney Gascòn Has George Soros’ Endorsement.”

“A difficult battle” for Gascón

In a poll released earlier this month, Gascón was far behind Hochman. The UC Berkeley Institute for Government Studies survey, co-sponsored by the Los Angeles Times, found that 51 percent of likely voters favored Hochman and 21 percent supported Gascón. Twenty-eight percent were undecided.

“Even the most principled political donors are essentially investors,” said Dan Schnur, who teaches political communications at the University of Southern California and UC Berkeley. “If they don’t see that this investment has a chance of paying off, they don’t succeed.”

When Gascón ran for prosecutor four years ago, it was at a “singular moment” for the reform movement, Schnur said.

“Voters were much more willing to explore reform efforts and it’s not as if they have turned their backs on those efforts, but they are just much more cautious than they were four years ago “, he said.

Individually, Gascón also raised significantly less than Hochman. Gascón raised about $870,000, compared to Hochman’s $4.6 million.

Gascón’s supporters remain confident in their ability to overcome the polling deficit.

“There are a lot of undecided people,” said Hoover of LA Voice Action.

A coalition led by Hoover’s group raised $605,000 to support Gascón. Half of the money comes from the Progressive Era PAC. Bay Area criminal justice reform advocate Quinn Delaney, the Smart Justice California Action Fund and SEIU 2015 each invested $100,000.

Hoover called the race “an uphill battle” for Gascón.

“I’m a man of faith, so I try to be hopeful,” he added.

LAist data journalist Maloy Moore contributed to this story.