Global plastic production must be reduced to tackle the growing plastic pollution crisis, according to a new analysis released ahead of crucial international negotiations to establish the world’s first legally binding treaty on plastic waste.

The study, led by Samuel Pottinger, highlights that without limits on plastic production, poorly managed plastic waste – pollution that seeps into the environment and poses risks to human health – will double to 121 million tonnes by 2050. Additionally, annual greenhouse gas emissions from the plastics industry are expected to grow by 37 percent over the same period if production is left unchecked.

Research suggests that four key interventions could significantly reduce the impact of plastic waste. These include imposing a global cap on plastic production, investing in waste management infrastructure, introducing a packaging tax and enforcing a recycling mandate. If implemented, these measures could reduce mismanaged plastic waste by up to 91% by 2050, while also reducing plastics-related emissions by around a third.

On the eve of UN treaty negotiations in Busan, South Korea, the study – published in Science – highlights the urgency of reaching agreement on how to tackle plastic pollution. The negotiations, due to end on November 25, are crucial, with some countries and plastics industry lobbyists opposing proposals to cap or reduce production.

Pottinger, of the University of California, Berkeley, stressed the importance of reducing plastic production to meet the treaty’s goal of ending plastic pollution. He said: “This research clearly shows that it will be almost impossible to end plastic pollution without reducing plastic production. The scale of the challenge is immense, but the treaty could almost entirely solve the problem – if ambitious policies, including a cap on production, were implemented.

More than 50 countries, including the UK, have committed to considering the full lifecycle of plastic as part of the ‘Bridge to Busan’ commitment, which includes promoting sustainable production of plastic polymers .

According to the 2020 study, 32% of the 547 million tonnes of plastic produced globally was used for packaging.

Capping global plastic production at 2020 levels would reduce mismanaged plastic waste by 2050 from around 121 million tonnes to 72 million tonnes. This reduction would come from the slowdown in the incessant increase in plastic production, which has surged since 1950.

Plastic waste is particularly damaging to ecosystems because it breaks down into smaller particles, including micro- and nanoplastics, which harm the environment from the Arctic to the deep ocean.

Pottinger also highlighted serious human health risks from plastic pollution, including higher rates of cancer, cardiovascular disease and reproductive problems. The plastic industry’s impact on climate change is also significant, with emissions resulting from the extraction and processing of oil and gas used to make plastic, as well as plastic production and management waste.

The research analyzed global plastic consumption and waste generation in four regions: North America, China, the EU and the “majority world” (the rest of the globe). In 2020, global plastic consumption reached 547 million tonnes, of which 86% was virgin plastic and 14% recycled. China was the largest consumer, accounting for 36 percent of global consumption, followed by the majority world with 28 percent, the EU with 18 percent and North America with 18 percent.

While plastic consumption in China is expected to peak around 2030 and then decline, consumption in North America and the majority of the world is expected to increase. Without intervention, global plastic consumption could reach 749 million tonnes by 2050.

However, the report suggests that implementing key interventions could significantly reduce waste. A tax on packaging consumption could reduce waste by 145 million tonnes, while a ban on single-use plastics could reduce consumption by 98 million tonnes. A packaging reuse mandate, such as a deposit system, could reduce plastic packaging by 74 million tons by 2050.

The study concludes that these packaging-focused interventions could have substantial environmental benefits, especially since lightweight plastic packaging is a major contributor to plastic pollution in the environment.