Historian Allan Lichtman published an assessment of the state of play in the Electoral College, suggesting that Vice President Kamala Harris could win 283 votes, with an advantage in four key states.

In a live stream posted Thursday to his YouTube channel, Lichtman said Harris was leading in Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina and Georgia.

He said previously News week that women – who heavily favor Harris in most swing states – “far outnumber men in early voting in swing states,” giving the Democratic candidate an advantage in those states.

Drawing on gender divides in early voting statistics, Lichtman said Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina and Georgia lean blue.

In contrast, Arizona and Nevada lean red, he said. The historian called Pennsylvania “haphazard.”

News week contacted Lichtman and the Harris and Trump campaigns for comment via email outside of normal business hours.

Although Lichtman stressed that he was not officially predicting the results and that the assessment was subject to much “conjecture,” the American University professor issued a formal prediction on who will win the election, saying based on his “Les Clés du Blanc” system. Home.”

This system is based on 13 keys, all true/false, which assess the position of the ruling party based on various factors, including the economy, foreign policy and domestic politics. Lichtman has an impressive track record of calling the winner using this model, although his methods are not without criticism.

The 13 keys, as outlined by the historian in a 2012 article for the Social education newspaper, are they:

1. Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the United States House of Representatives than after previous midterm elections.
2. No primary competition: There is no serious competition for the nomination of the outgoing party.
3. Incumbent seeking re-election: The party’s incumbent candidate is the sitting president.
4. No third parties: There is no significant third-party or independent campaign.
5. A strong economy in the short term: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
6. A strong economy in the long term: Real per capita economic growth during the term is equal to or greater than the average growth during the previous two terms.
7. Major policy change: The current administration is making major changes to national policy.
8. No social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
9. No scandal: The current administration is not marred by any major scandal.
10. No foreign or military failure: The current administration does not experience any major failures in foreign or military affairs.
11. Major success abroad or military: The current administration achieves major success in foreign or military affairs.
12. Charismatic incumbent: The party’s incumbent candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
13. Uncharismatic challenger: The contesting party candidate is neither charismatic nor a national hero.

If six or more are wrong, the ruling party risks losing the election. If five or fewer are wrong, he is expected to win. In September, Lichtman officially planned that Harris would win the election, based on the keys.

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