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    • Expected Tropical Storm Sara Could Threaten Florida As Hurricane
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    Expected Tropical Storm Sara Could Threaten Florida As Hurricane

    Umito Posted on

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    • Tropical Depression Nineteen formed Thursday morning
    • The system is expected to become Tropical Storm Sara later today.
    • It is too early to tell how strong it will be or whether it will threaten Florida.

    A tropical depression that formed in the Caribbean this morning is expected to become Tropical Storm Sara later today, according to the latest update of the National Hurricane Center.

    AccuWeather forecasters say that depending on what happens next, it could hit Florida next week, making it the fourth hurricane to make landfall in the state this year.

    “Wind shear remains negligible over much of the Caribbean and waters are very warm (in the 80s F)” AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said“And now, with showers and thunderstorms starting to gather, it probably won’t be long before the tropical depression strengthens into a tropical storm.”

    The storm, now Tropical Depression 19, is expected to continue moving westward through Friday, the NHC said, and could make landfall in Honduras. Forecasters are predicting heavy rain and flooding in parts of Central America, but what happens next depends on several factors.

    • If it moves inland, it could weaken before entering the Gulf.
    • If it remains offshore, it could continue to strengthen in the hot water under the same conditions that produced hurricanes Rafael, Milton and Helene.
    • If the high pressure dome currently positioned along the southern U.S. Atlantic coast stays where it is and the approaching cold front slows, it could direct the storm toward Central America or southeastern Mexico , where it may not have time to regain its hurricane strength. before threatening Florida, according to AccuWeather forecasters.
    • If the high pressure moves away and the front arrives, the potential hurricane would have a clear path toward heading towards Florida like a stronger storm.

    “If it spent several days over land, this could mean a less defined depression merging with the front, with impacts primarily in the form of increased showers and thunderstorms across the state,” said Dr. Ryan Truchelut, chief meteorologist at WeatherTiger, based in Tallahassee.

    “If it spent little or no time over Central America, a legitimate hurricane threat to the Florida peninsula is a realistic scenario. Most likely, this conditional threat would focus on southwest Florida. Florida or the Keys, with potential for cross-impacts on Southeast Florida, such as in Irene in 1999 or Wilma in 2005,” he said.

    ➤ Spaghetti Patterns for Tropical Depression Nineteen

    ➤ Weather alerts by SMS: Sign up to receive updates on current storms and weather events by location

    The next named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season would be Sara.

    Here is the latest update from the NHC as of 4 a.m. EST on Thursday, November 14:

    Tropical Depression Nineteen: What You Need to Know

    Special feature of the NHC cone: The forecast track shows the most likely path of the storm center. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to move outside the cone up to 33% of the time.

    • Location: 15.9N 82.2W, 250 miles east of Isla Guanaja, Honduras, 90 miles northeast of Cabo Gracias a Dios on the Nicaragua/Honduras border
    • Maximum sustained winds: 35 mph
    • Current movement: West at 15 mph
    • Minimum central pressure: 1004 MB

    How strong is Tropical Depression 19 and where is it going?

    At 7 a.m. EST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nineteen was located near latitude 15.9 north and longitude 82.2 west. The depression is moving westward at nearly 15 mph. This movement is expected to continue until today, moving the system across the Western Caribbean Sea. The depression is expected to stagnate and meander near the northern coast of Honduras Friday evening and through the weekend.

    Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected over the next 48 hours.

    The depression is expected to strengthen into a tropical storm later today and continue to strengthen if it remains over water.

    The estimated minimum central pressure is 1,004 mb.

    Spaghetti Patterns for Tropical Depression Nineteen, Future Tropical Storm Sara

    Special note regarding spaghetti models: The illustrations include a range of forecasting tools and models, and not all are equal. The hurricane center uses only the four or five best-performing models to help it make its forecasts.

    ➤ Spaghetti Patterns for Tropical Depression Nineteen

    Monitoring, warnings issued

    For an explanation of what watches and warnings mean, scroll to the bottom of this story.

    Hurricane Watch:

    • From Punta Castilla to the Honduras/Nicaragua border
    • The Bay Islands of Honduras

    Tropical Storm Warning:

    • From Punta Sal to the Honduras/Nicaragua border
    • The Bay Islands of Honduras

    Tropical Storm Watch:

    • Honduras/Nicaragua border to Puerto Cabezas

    Will Tropical Depression Nineteen be the next hurricane to hit Florida?

    It’s too early to tell if that will be the case, although some models suggest it could curve and hit the state.

    AccuWeather Meteorologist Bernie Rayno says families, businesses, emergency managers and government leaders in South and Central Florida need to prepare for potential impacts next week.

    “It’s a recipe for explosive intensification,” Rayno said. “Everyone should prepare for the possibility of a hurricane making landfall along the Florida Gulf Coast next week. It’s time to get ready.

    Key messages from the National Hurricane Center

    • Through early next week, heavy rains will cause significant flash flooding and life-threatening mudslides in parts of Central America, particularly Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala and western Nicaragua.
    • The disturbance is expected to be near hurricane strength as it moves near the eastern coast of Honduras on Friday and Saturday. Hurricane watches and tropical storm warnings are in effect for parts of this area.
    • The system is expected to approach Belize and Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula at or near hurricane strength by early next week, where there is a risk of dangerous storm surge and damaging winds . Residents in these areas should monitor the latest forecast updates and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place.
    • It is too early to determine what impacts the system may have on parts of the eastern Gulf of Mexico, including Florida, the Florida Keys and Cuba by the middle of next week. Residents in these areas should monitor forecast updates regularly.

    Current forecast: How big could Tropical Depression 19 be?

    • From 4 a.m.: 35 mph
    • 12 hours: 40 mph
    • 24 hours: 45 mph
    • 36 hours: 60 mph
    • 48 hours: 65 mph, near the coast
    • 60 hours: 65 mph, near the coast
    • 72 hours: 60 mph, inland
    • 96 hours: 65 mph, over water
    • 120 hours: 50 mph, inland

    What impact could Tropical Depression 19 have?

    PRECIPITATION: Through early next week, precipitation is expected to reach 10 to 20 inches, with isolated storms totaling about 30 inches in area expected over northern Honduras. This rainfall will result in large areas of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides, particularly along and near the Sierra La Esperanza. Elsewhere in the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, and western Nicaragua, Tropical Depression Nineteen is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with localized totals around 15 inches until the beginning of next week. This will result in areas of possibly significant flash flooding, as well as potential landslides.

    WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area by Friday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area and possible in the watch area starting late today.

    STORM WAVE: Storm surge could raise water levels up to 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast, in areas of outflow winds along the northern coast of Honduras . Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

    National Hurricane Center Map: What else is there and how likely are they to strengthen?

    Systems currently monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:

    What do the colored areas on the NOAA map mean?

    Hatched areas on a tropical map indicate “areas where a tropical cyclone — which could be a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane — could develop,” said Jamie Rhome, deputy director of the National Hurricane Center.

    The colors clearly indicate the likelihood of a system developing, with yellow being low, orange being medium, and red being high.

    The National Hurricane Center generally does not issue tropical advisories until there is a named storm, but there is an exception.

    “If a system is close to land and there is potential for development, the National Hurricane Center will not wait to issue advisories, even if the system has not become a full storm. This gives residents time to prepare,” Rhome said.

    When is hurricane season in Florida?

    The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30.

    The Atlantic Basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico.

    Interactive map: Hurricanes, tropical storms past near your city

    Excessive precipitation forecast

    Stay informed. Receive weather alerts by SMS

    What do watches and warnings mean?

    A hurricane watch means hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the first expected appearance of tropical storm force winds, conditions that make outdoor preparations difficult or dangerous.

    A tropical storm warning means tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A tropical storm watch means tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area, usually within 48 hours.

    What’s next?

    We will continue to update our tropical weather coverage daily. Download your local site’s app to ensure you’re always connected to the news. And look for our special subscription offers here.

    (This story has been updated with new information.)

    Umito
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