What you need to know: The US Navy’s “Navigation Plan for the United States Navy” sets the goal of having 80% of its fleet combat ready by 2027 to counter China’s military buildup. However, delays and budget overruns, particularly in the Virginia-class submarine program, are jeopardizing this schedule.

-Projected costs for these submarines have exceeded budgets by $17 billion, and production schedules are two to three years behind schedule. Congressman Ken Calvert and other critics have expressed concerns about the transparency of the Navy’s shipbuilding programs.

-Deficits in the maritime industrial base and shortages of skilled labor also pose serious challenges, raising doubts about the Navy’s preparedness for potential conflict with China.

Will the delay of the Virginia-class submarines have an impact on the US Navy’s China strategy?

Last September, the US Navy announced that it was adopting a new strategy To counter the ongoing military buildup in China, the Sea Service’s “Navigation Plan for the United States Navy” calls for preparation for possible conflict with the People’s Republic of China before the end of the decade.

“By 2027, the Navy will be better prepared for sustained combat as part of a joint and combined force, prioritizing the People’s Republic of China as a stimulating challenge,” the report said.

The timeline is “directly linked to Chinese President Xi Jinping’s goal of making the PLA capable of invading Taiwan by 2030.” Marine Insight reported. The US Navy is seeking to have more than 80% of its fleet combat ready by the deadline.

However, it appears that the US Navy has its work cut out for it, with several obstacles to overcome to achieve its objectives. Among these is the last block of Virginia-class nuclear power plants. fast attack submarineswhich is now expected to cost more than $17 billion compared to the budget planned until the end of the decade.

This is “a problem emblematic of a crisis in the program”, Bloomberg reportedquoting the top House lawmaker on defense spending.

“It is clear that the Navy and the shipbuilders have known about this deficit for at least 18 months (but) Congress was informed of it just two weeks ago,” said Rep. Ken Calvert (R-Calif. ), Chairman of the House Defense Appropriations Subcommittee. in a statement made before last Thursday’s classified hearing with U.S. Secretary of the Navy Carlos Del Toro.

Virginia-class boats late

The US Navy has experienced significant delays in Virginia-class shipsand the latest submarines are not two or even three years late while prices continue to rise.

Calvert further suggested that the Virginia class was just one of several U.S. Navy programs that are “in crisis,” and he sharply criticized the sea service for its failure to disclose problems.

“It is not clear to me that anyone has accurate information about the trajectory of a shipbuilding program other than the program managers and as they change every two years, the options for long-term liability are limited,” Calvert added. “For too long, this committee has been put in the position of wondering what the Navy is hiding behind the curtain. It is time to pull back the curtain completely.”

The two prime contractors for the Virginia-class submarines, General Dynamics and Huntington Ingalls Industries (HII), were contracted to build two submarines per year, but as Bloomberg reported, the defense companies are not are on average only “complete a project plus 20%”. work on building a second submarine.

It is now estimated that the companies “will not reach the rate of two per year until 2028”, and what is more worrying is that the delays will not only impact the US Navy, but could “undermine” AUKUS Alliance with Australia and the United Kingdom, with the United States responsible for selling the first in a series of five Virginia-class boats to Canberra starting in 2032.

Everything on this basis

The U.S. Navy acknowledged the problem, but in a statement following the hearing, the service said it was “advocating for improvements to the maritime industrial base and increased funding to ensure the Navy achieves its acquisition objectives.

For its part, the Navy established “an independent naval cost agency to improve cost estimates and created a maritime industrial base program to manage funding supporting the industrial base.”

The root of the problem is easy to see. Since the 1970s, 14 “defense-related shipyards” were closedwhile only one new shipyard has opened. Furthermore, the number of companies still in the shipbuilding sector, has decreased. Additionally, the shipbuilding industry faces an ongoing challenge in attracting, training and retaining a qualified workforce. As the U.S. military struggles to fill its ranks, the shipbuilding industry faces a dire labor shortage. There are not enough new workers to replace those retiring.

Given these issues, the U.S. Navy may need to rethink how it will be prepared to confront China in just over two years.

Experience and expertise of the author: Peter Suciu, defense expert

Peter Suciu is a writer based in Michigan. He has contributed to more than four dozen magazines, newspapers and websites with more than 3,200 articles published during a twenty-year career in journalism. He writes regularly on military hardware, firearms history, cybersecurity, politics, and international affairs. Peter is also a Contributing writer for Forbes and Liquidation Jobs. You can follow him on Twitter: @PeterSuciu. You can send an email to the author: (email protected).

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