Shortly after the end of the World Series, the Houston Astros the front office will be responsible for negotiating with the superstar Alex Bregman.

It would be interesting to see the All-Star leave several times in free agency, but as the Astros have continued to show, they won’t go above and beyond to keep guys they think won’t help them not to maximize their World Series victory window.

This could be the toughest decision facing Major League Baseball this winter, as there are several reasons to believe Bregman could be on his way out.

Let’s assume Houston doesn’t think he’s worth the type of money he expects to receive, which some have suggested is closer to $200 million. In this case, there’s a very good chance he’s on his way out after spending his time with the organization since they drafted him in the first round of the 2015 MLB Draft.

From a pure production standpoint, keeping the New Mexico native seems like the logical thing to do. However, some think he’s a bit overrated and are concerned about paying him like one of the best third basemen in Major League Baseball.

This includes Sportsnaut’s Matt Higgins.

“It’s hard to imagine Bregman leaving the Houston Astros, but it’s possible since the two-time All-Star hits free agency. Bregman’s OPS and OPS+ have declined over the past three seasons, and his walks have decreased more than twice from 2023 – from 92. to 44. Bregman will be 31 years old before the 2025 regular season. The Athletic’s Jim Bowden predicts Bregman will receive a seven-year, $185.5 million contract, but teams might be hesitant given his declining numbers.

Higgins focused on the contract projections of some of the players he called overrated, which is fair and unfair. Bregman has done everything he can throughout his career to get paid as one of the best third basemen in baseball, so if money is the deciding factor here, it’s almost impossible to call him a overrated.

He had a rough performance during parts of 2024, having perhaps the worst full campaign of his career. However, he still finished with a 118 OPS+ and hit 26 home runs.

If the slugger had made half of what he did after the first two months of the season throughout the year, there’s a very good chance he’d be looking at a $200 million contract as his floor .

Instead, this quiet start has turned off a few evaluators, so it’s only a matter of time before we know if the Astros are among those who feel this way.