If there’s only one player the Nationals are likely to pursue this winter, it’s an established slugger, preferably one who can play first base.

If there’s a No. 2 item on general manager Mike Rizzo’s wish list, it’s probably an experienced starting pitcher who could help lead an otherwise young rotation to better days.

This is not earth-shattering news. The next time Rizzo says he’s not looking to throw will be the first time. It’s always a priority.

But the evidence suggests that this has been a priority in some years rather than others. Yes, the Nationals pursued starters last winter. The only one they landed was Zach Davies, who got a minor league contract, then lost a spring training battle for the fifth spot in the rotation to Trevor Williams and was let go before camp ended.

On the other end of the spectrum, of course, were major signings of Max Scherzer in 2015 and Patrick Corbin in 2019 to nine-figure contracts.

And somewhere in between were the shorter-term contracts given to good-but-not-great starters over the years: Edwin Jackson (2012), Dan Haren (2013), Anibal Sanchez (2019), Jon Lester (2021) .

So what approach are the Nats likely to take this winter? The proof will be in the pudding if and when they actually sign a pitcher. But there’s reason to believe they’re leaning more toward big-ticket products this time around than they have in some time.

With Corbin’s $140 million contract and Trevor Williams’ $15 million contract, and with Stephen Strasburg still earning what’s left of his $245 million contract but officially retired, the Nationals should have the financial capacity to get involved in the big name market. entries. Of course, this doesn’t guarantee anything. The competition will be tough, and there’s reason to wonder if the organization might be a little hesitant to give another nine-figure deal to a pitcher when the last two have gone so poorly.

But there are several big-ticket items available right now, not to mention plenty of second-tier options that could also attract the Nats.

Corbin Burnes is the biggest prize of the winter. Over the past four years with the Brewers and Orioles, he sports a 2.94 ERA and 1.020 WHIP, with over 10 strikeouts per nine innings and an average of 189 innings pitched per season. He just turned 30, he’s represented by Scott Boras, and he’s about to get paid handsomely.

Blake Snell was the top free agent a year ago, but never got the mega-deal he and Boras were looking for, instead settling for a one-year, $32 million “pillow deal” with the Giants. The southpaw is now back on the market, hoping for a long-term deal after posting a 3.12 ERA, 1.048 WHIP and 12.5 strikeouts per nine innings in 20 starts.

Fellow left-hander Max Fried is a free agent for the first time at age 31 and has an excellent resume over eight seasons with the Braves: 73-36 with a 3.07 ERA and 1.164 WHIP, having dominated 165 innings four times during the last one. five full major league seasons. (As a bonus, he won three Gold Glove Awards.)

This is the highest tier of free agents, potential $100 million men. Next comes the second tier, which isn’t too bad in itself, although most of these guys have some flaws or red flags to be aware of.

Jack Flaherty is one of the most enigmatic pitchers out there. When he’s good, he’s really good. When he’s not, he really isn’t. And we saw both sides of him last month with the Dodgers. Teammate Walker Buehler was brilliant when his team needed him most, but that came after he missed the better part of two years due to injuries and struggled to a 5.38 ERA in 16 regular season starts before the playoffs.

Nathan Eovaldi has been pretty consistent over the past four seasons with the Red Sox and Rangers (3.76 ERA, 1.163 WHIP, 152 innings average) but is about to turn 35. Nick Pivetta, Sean Manaea and Luis Severino are solid in the middle of the rankings. -spin starters that won’t cost an arm and a leg. Shane Bieber just returned from Tommy John surgery to make two starts (lights out) for the Guardians.

Yusei Kikuchi has been a durable big league pitcher for six years, and his compatriot Roki Sasaki is poised to become the most coveted Japanese pitcher in a long time as teams can only spend what’s left of their international bonus to sign the contract 23 years old. old flamethrower, leveling the playing field. (The Nationals, for what it’s worth, have never signed a player directly from Asia in the club’s history, so this would be a major departure from traditional practices standard.)

And then there’s a last name to consider, a guy with as good a track record as anyone, but a recent injury history and limited performance as he approached and passed the age of 40. Scherzer isn’t what he used to be, but would the Nationals consider bringing him back for one last swan song and a chance to mentor the young rotation?

Rizzo surprised us 10 years ago by signing Mad Max. Wouldn’t it be something if he did it again a decade later?