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Trump promised to repeal the IRA could slow Mass. energy transition
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Trump promised to repeal the IRA could slow Mass. energy transition

President-elect Donald Trump doesn’t think climate change is a problem and wants the government to stop spending money on what he’s called a “hoax” and a “scam.” Now, the question is whether he will — or even can — stop the momentum for a clean energy industry that got a big infusion of cash under President Biden.

When Trump retakes the White House in January, he’ll find a country retooling its electric grids to accommodate clean power, deploying electric vehicles, and constructing wind turbines and solar farms.

But the incoming Trump administration could significantly slow that transition by attempting to block unspent federal dollars for climate action and by rolling back rules to cut carbon emissions. Both tactics would further risk putting the US behind on its climate goals at a critical moment for the planet and hurt the emerging climate tech and clean energy sectors, experts said.

The Biden administration in 2022 passed the Inflation Reduction Act, the largest spending package in US history focused on curbing climate change. It authorized hundreds of trillions of dollars in federal loans, grants, and taxes to turbocharge the clean energy industry.

The uncertainty brought by a Trump administration could be “suffocating” for emerging clean energy and clean tech industries, which face strong competition from rivals in China and Europe, said Daniel Burge, an energy solutions research analyst at ABI Research.

“It’s a young sector, which needs stability,” Burge said. “Other countries have had much more push behind their sectors.”

About three-quarters of the $105 billion allocated for climate-related grant programs nationwide included in the IRA will already be spent or committed before the end of Biden’s term, experts at Columbia University Law School estimated. Still, at least $14 billion remains unallocated.

Trump promised on the campaign trail to “terminate” the IRA and rescind unspent funds from the climate law, calling it the “greatest scam in history.” The Trump campaign did not immediately respond to a request for comment Thursday.

Trump has not put forward a plan to curb emissions, instead promising to increase oil, gas, and coal production. He also said during a presidential debate with democratic nominee Vice President Kamala Harris that wind and solar energy developments take up too much land.

Conservative groups have criticized the legislation as ineffective for its titled goal — reducing inflation. The Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025 reportthe controversial conservative blueprint for a second Trump term, called for rescinding IRA funds, as Trump promised during the campaign, and for repealing its tax subsidies.

“The next Administration should … push for legislation to fully repeal recently passed subsidies in the tax code, including the dozens of credits and tax breaks for green energy companies,” the Project 2025 report said.

Massachusetts has received more than $1 billion in grants and tax credits from the IRA, according to state officials.

“These are transformative pieces of legislation that are really benefiting our state,” Governor Maura Healey said Wednesday, referring to the IRA and other federal infrastructure spending packages passed under Biden that will benefit the clean energy transition. “We want to work to make sure that continues.”

At least 500 clean energy jobs for electricians, mechanics, construction workers, technicians, and more were created in Massachusetts as a result of the law, according to an analysis by Climate Powera climate advocacy group.

The IRA put the US on a much faster track for cutting emissions — double or even triple the pace it had been on prior — and injected a big burst of enthusiasm for the economic benefits from energy transition.

Climate scientists say it’s beyond crunch time for the US to reconfigure buildings, homes, businesses, and transportation infrastructure to prevent more greenhouse gas emissions. This transition must take shape this decade, climate scientists warnor the planet risks much worse and irreparable changes.

During the Biden administration, Massachusetts-based startups developing climate tech solutions have raised more than $12 billion of venture capital, compared with $2 billion during Trump’s first term, according to data from Pitchbook.

In Massachusetts, the IRA also provides savings for consumers through tax credits for electric vehicles and retrofitting homes to be more energy efficient.

EV charging stations at the new Kennedy Middle School in Natick. Lane Turner/Globe Staff

Even so, the US is behind on its targets to cut emissions in half by 2030 and achieve “net zero” emissions — no new emissions added — by 2050, said Jesse Jenkins, an assistant professor of engineering at Princeton University.

“Instead of a president committed to further accelerating that progress, we are left waiting to see how well the recent gains can be defended against repeal,” Jenkins said.

Regardless of what happens in Washington, Healey promised to stay the course on Massachusetts’ climate goals, which she has made a centerpiece of her administration.

“We are full steam ahead and we are not taking our foot off the pedal,” Healey said.

Sublime Systems, a Somerville business that makes cement with electricity instead of fossil fuelsreceived $87 million from the Inflation Reduction Act for a demonstration plant in Holyoke, with site work now underway. Leah Ellis, chief executive and co-founder of the company, said the grant was “a really big deal” as the startup tries to convince the slow-moving construction industry to switch to its greener product.

But looking to the political horizon, “there’s a lot of uncertainty, doubt, and fear,” Ellis said.

The Trump administration could try to repeal the tax breaks on electric vehicles, for example, or attempt to block climate spending that hasn’t already gone out the door. Also, Massachusetts has yet to award any of the roughly $60 million for building EV charging stations the state got from the 2021 infrastructure law, another big spending bill passed under Biden.

Spencer Pederson, senior vice president of public affairs for the National Electrical Manufacturers Association, said he’s worried all the provisions of the IRA are potentially “on the chopping block.” The trade group will make the case to Congress that closing the pipeline of grants, loans, and tax breaks for clean energy will only hurt American manufacturing.

“These provisions have brought domestic manufacturing back to the United States,” Pederson said. “They’ve created jobs, and they’ve helped strengthen our domestic energy economy.”

Some are optimistic that the benefits of the IRA will prove too good for Republicans to give up.

“A lot of this money is going into Republican areas that are seeing tremendous economic benefit,” said Paul Bledsoe, lecturer at American University’s Department of Public Administration and Policy who was the director of communications for the White House Climate Change task force under President Bill Clinton. “I’m simply skeptical about (Trump’s) ability or willingness to fulfill ending the IRA.”

Policy experts also said that stopping spending already authorized by Congress is likely to be logistically difficult.

“But that’s not to say that they won’t try,” said Michael Burger, executive director of the Sabin Center for Climate Change Law at Columbia Law School.

Trump has said he wants to restore a previous presidential power to block spending, known as impoundment, even though that power was revoked by Congress in 1974. At the time, President Richard Nixon had refused to release congressionally appropriated funds for government programs he opposed.

It’s possible the Trump administration could try to revive it, said Robert Bradner, a federal law attorney and partner at Holland & Knight. However, most legal scholars think the president is obligated to distribute the money, said Bradner, who previously spent more than a decade in government.

Still, even an attempt could be enough enough to spook businesses and stall progress, experts said.

“Perhaps the greatest ability that a Trump administration will have to gum up (climate action) is really just to slow things down,” Burger said. “The administration may just seek to grind things to a halt.”


Erin Douglas can be reached at [email protected]. Follow her @erinmdouglas23. Aaron Pressman can be reached at [email protected]. Follow him @ampressman.