Later today, Nigel Farage’s British Reform Party will hold a conference in Wales.

Sky News will meet the MP and party leader later today – join us this evening for the interview.

Ahead of the rally, a new poll was released by Survation, showing the Reform Party in second place behind Labor – and ahead of the Conservatives.

This previously named Brexit party is leading at Westminster in the Senedd elections scheduled for May 2026.

According to Survation, support for the Labor Party is falling in Wales but “the Conservatives are struggling to capitalize”.

Instead, it appears that the Reform Party is going after the voters.

The pollsters note that “the reform performs better in terms of voting intentions in Westminster in areas defined as ‘Welsh industrial valleys’, with a rate of 24% compared to 21% in Wales as a whole.”

Some 2,006 Welsh residents were surveyed between October 18 and November 4 – a period essentially before Kemi Badenoch became leader of the Conservatives.

When asked who they would vote for in a general election if it were to take place tomorrow, the results were as follows:

• Work – 33%;
• Reform in the United Kingdom – 21%;
• Conservative – 18%;
• Plaid Cymru – 13%;
• Liberal Democrats – 9%;
• Greens – 5%.

The Senedd electoral system gives citizens two votes, one for their local constituency and one for their region – however, the two sets of data are broadly similar.

When asked who they would vote for as a local representative if elections were held tomorrow, the results were:

• Work – 30%;
• Reform in the United Kingdom – 20%;
• Conservative – 17%;
• Plaid Cymru – 21%;
• Liberal Democrats – 6%;
• Greens – 5%.

The voting intention for the regional representative was only one or two percentage points different.

A result of 20% would represent an increase of 18 percentage points for reform compared to the 2021 Senedd results.

Responding to their sharp rise in the polls, Mr Farage said: “The Senedd elections are now just 18 months away. This new poll shows that the Reformed are ahead of the Conservatives in Wales on 19%, and we are on 26% in the Valleys. can be the challenger of the Labor Party.

“Labour have failed the people of Wales for almost three decades now. Half of all voters think they have mismanaged the NHS.

“Our conference in Newport today marks the start of our efforts to present a new choice to an electorate who have been seriously disappointed. Wales needs reform.”