Badenoch is the third woman to lead the Conservatives, after Margaret Thatcher and Liz Truss, both of whom became Prime Minister. She is the second Conservative leader of non-white origin, after Sunak, and the first to have African roots. In contrast, the center-left Labor Party has only ever been led by white men.

In a leadership race that lasted more than three months, Conservative lawmakers narrowed the field to six candidates in a series of votes before handing the final two to the entire party membership.

Both finalists came from the right of the party and said they could win back voters from Reform UK, the far-right, anti-immigration party led by populist politician Nigel Farage and which has eaten into Conservative support.

But the party has also lost many voters to the winning Labor Party and the centrist Liberal Democrats, and some conservatives fear a shift to the right will alienate the party from public opinion.

Starmer’s government has endured a difficult first few months in office, plagued by negative headlines, fiscal gloom and plummeting popularity ratings.

But Bale said historical facts suggest Badenoch has little chance of returning the Conservatives to power in 2029.