It is now almost certain that 2024 will become the first year in which average temperatures exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, exceeding the threshold set by the Paris Agreement.

“At this point, barring an asteroid impact or a massive volcanic eruption…I think it’s safe to say this will be the first year above 1.5 degrees,” says Zeke Hauspere at the American non-profit organization Berkeley Earth.

Last year, the average surface temperature of the planet was 1.45°C higher than…