Saudi Aramco will have a crucial decision to make at the start of next year: to reduce its $31 billion quarterly dividend and risk worsening the kingdom’s budget deficit, or continue borrowing to maintain payment.

The world’s largest oil exporter is a key cog in the Saudi financial system with its crude sales and generous payouts helping to finance the crown prince. Mohammed bin Salman‘s multibillion-dollar spending plans. The kingdom’s budget is under strain as oil prices remain low while production remains near three-year lows.