Thursday October 31, 2024

As Election Day approaches, former President Donald Trump leads in the battleground states of Georgia and Arizona, while Vice President Kamala Harris remains ahead in New Mexico.

A new telephone and online survey by Rasmussen Reports and American thinker finds that if the election were held today, 51% of likely Georgia voters would vote for Trump, while 46% would vote for Harris. Two percent (2%) say they would vote for another candidate and two percent (2%) are still undecided. In 2020President Joe Biden narrowly defeated Trump in Georgia. (To see the wording of the survey questions, click here.)

Trump has a two-point lead in Arizona, where he has 48% to Harris’s 46%, with three percent (3%) going for another candidate and five percent (5%) undecided. Meanwhile, in New Mexico, which Biden won by a double-digit margin in 2020Harris now leads by five points, with 49% to Trump’s 44%. Four percent (4%) of New Mexico voters would vote for another candidate and two percent (2%) remain undecided.

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The survey of 749 likely voters in New Mexico was conducted October 24-26, the survey of 910 likely voters in Georgia was conducted October 25-28, and the survey of 803 likely voters in Arizona was conducted from October 25 to 29, 2024, by Rasmussen Reports and American Thinker. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a confidence level of 95%. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Voters in all three states rank the three most important issues in the same order, with the economy topping the list (first place by 39 percent of the vote).

Georgia, 33% in Arizona and 27% in New Mexico), followed by border security (23% in Arizona, 21% in Georgia and 18% in New Mexico) and abortion (16% in Arizona and New Mexico, 13% in Georgia). ).

“On the question of whether the flow of illegal aliens crossing the southern border constitutes an “invasion,” majorities in all three states agreed that the description is accurate (62% in Georgia, 57% in Arizona, and 52% in New Mexico),” said Andrea Widburg, editor-in-chief of American Thinker. “In every state, majorities strongly or somewhat support using the U.S. military or National Guard to stop the influx of illegal aliens (66% in Georgia, 60% in Arizona and 55% in New Mexico) . In all three states, the greatest number of respondents hold Biden responsible for illegal immigration (28% in Georgia, 30% in Arizona and 28% in New Mexico).

Among other findings from the Rasmussen Reports/American Thinker survey of voters in Georgia, Arizona and New Mexico:

– Democrats lead in U.S. Senate elections in Arizona and New Mexico. Democrat Ruben Gallego has a four-point lead in Arizona, with 48% to Republican Kari Lake’s 44%; four percent (4%) of Arizona voters prefer another Senate candidate and five percent (5%) are undecided. In New Mexico, outgoing Democratic Senator Martin Heinrich has a nine-point lead, with 50% to 41% for his Republican challenger Nella Domenici.

– In the battle for control of the United States House of Representatives, Republicans have a four-point lead (48% to 44%) over Democrats in Arizona on the so-called “generic ballot” question, while the The Republican Party’s lead in Georgia is just one. point (47% to 46%). In New Mexico, Democrats lead by five points (49% to 44%).

– The “gender gap” for the presidential election is a net eight points in Arizona, where Trump leads among men by six points (50% to Harris’s 44%) and Harris is ahead by two points among female voters (49% versus 47% for Trump). ). In Georgia, the gender gap is 19 points, with Trump leading by 16 points (56% to Harris’s 40%) among men, and Harris having a three-point lead among female voters (49% to 46%). % for Trump). In New Mexico, the gender gap is as high as 30 points, with Trump leading by 10 points among men (51% to Harris’s 41%), while Harris leads by 20 points among women (57% to 37 % for Trump).

– In Arizona, 53% of white voters, 22% of black voters, 38% of Hispanics and 60% of other minorities would vote for Trump, while 43% of white voters, 66% of black voters, 58% of Hispanics and 30 % of other minorities would vote for Harris.

– In Georgia, 66% of white voters, 18% of black voters and 52% of other minorities would vote for Trump, while 31% of white voters, 75% of black voters and 46% of other minorities would vote for Harris.

– In New Mexico, 47% of white voters, 59% of black voters, 53% of Hispanics and 46% of other minorities would vote for Harris, while 46% of white voters, 41% of black voters, 40% of Hispanics and 50% of other minorities would vote for Trump.

Harris has a three-point lead over Trump in Minnesota, but the presidential race is nearly tied in New Hampshire.

Voters overwhelmingly think this year’s presidential election is important, and most will be angry if their candidate doesn’t win.

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown is available to the public as well as Platinum Members.

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown is available to the public as well as Platinum Members.

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown is available to the public as well as Platinum Members.

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