Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba in an undated photo. (Kiyoshi Ota/Bloomberg)

Japan risks entering a new phase of political stagnation just as the world prepares for Donald Trump’s possible return to the White House — and the pressure that would put on key U.S. allies.

Sunday’s election left Japan without a clear winner for the first time since the 1990s, all but guaranteeing that a weak government will run the world’s fourth-largest economy. For now, it will be led by Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, who indicated on Monday that he had no intention of stepping down, even after his ruling Liberal Democratic Party did not failed to secure a majority for the first time since 2009, when the main opposition group won in a landslide.

A shaky administration – even if led by Ishiba, a self-described “defense nerd” – raises doubts about Japan’s ability to continue to play a leading role on global issues such as the war in Ukraine and to support Taiwan against a more assertive government. China. It could also slow Japan’s efforts to return to more orthodox policies after decades of overreliance on monetary and fiscal stimulus, measures that helped roil markets this year.

Ishiba bet on early elections soon after his victory in a party leadership race last month. But after being named prime minister on October 1, he now faces a daunting challenge to avoid becoming the country’s shortest-serving leader since the war. The prime minister needs 233 votes in the lower house to keep his job after his coalition won just 215 seats. A vote to decide the post of prime minister will take place as early as November 11, according to local media.

The additional votes could come from a small opposition party such as the People’s Democratic Party, which has enough seats to keep Ishiba in power.

DPP leader Yuichiro Tamaki reiterated Tuesday that he is not seeking to join a LDP-led coalition, although he is willing to consider cooperation on some issues such as expanding tax-free income benefits – a rule change that would benefit low-income workers while reducing taxes. income. For now, he has said he will put forward his own name when Parliament votes for prime minister.

The prospect of efforts to appease coalition allies indicates that Japan will continue to rely on additional spending measures and budgets. Ishiba has already pledged to implement a bigger economic plan this fall than former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s last year, boosting Japan’s spending budget.

The Bank of Japan may also find it more difficult to continue raising interest rates if Ishiba allows himself to be swayed by calls from the DPP and other parties to provide more aid to struggling households and small businesses. The initial market reaction was a weakening of the yen, which caused stocks to rise despite uncertainty over Ishiba’s ability to form a stable government.

Compared to former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who was in power for most of Trump’s presidency, Japan’s next leader will have no leverage over Parliament to help him meet demands if the Republican candidate regains office. White House in next week’s elections. .

Beyond Trump’s stated goal of imposing 10% tariffs on goods from all countries and blocking the acquisition of United States Steel Corp. by Nippon Steel Corp., he also repeatedly called on Japan to pay more for the presence of American troops. A deal on costs is expected to be renewed in 2026.

“You could have discussions about Japan’s defense contributions with a coalition government or a minority government that doesn’t have the influence to do so,” said Mireya Solis, Knight Chair in Japanese Studies. at the Brookings Institution. “These kinds of negotiations can be more difficult.”

While Japan was known for its “revolving door” of prime ministers in the 1990s and early 2000s, Abe’s second term as leader of the country from 2012 to 2020 marked a shift toward a more stable government and a confident presence on the international scene, a prolonged trajectory. by Ishiba’s predecessor, Kishida.

This period of stability notably allowed Abe to develop personal ties with Trump, with the two leaders meeting dozens of times, sometimes during a round of golf. Even today, Trump regularly speaks on the campaign trail about his friendship with Abe, who will be assassinated in 2022, even as he promises to continue pressuring Japan on trade.

“It may be difficult to expect serious engagement by Ishiba or his successor in personal diplomacy with the next U.S. president, for example, or with the Chinese or South Korean governments,” wrote Tobias Harris, founder of Japan Foresight LLC, in a note to clients.

However, it is unlikely that there will be a major change in relations between the United States and Japan. All major Japanese parties support Tokyo’s alliance with Washington. Like Ishiba, some want some details of the alliance agreement to be revisited to ensure they are fair to both sides.

“This snap election was not a referendum on the U.S.-Japan alliance, which remains as strong and secure today as it was before the election,” said U.S. Ambassador to Japan Rahm Emanuel. “In fact, it is clear that there is a consensus in Japanese policy that ever-deepening cooperation between our two nations is essential to the security and collective deterrence of the Indo-Pacific region and beyond.”

The question is how Japan will finance the biggest increase in defense spending since the end of World War II. In 2022, Kishida has pledged to increase spending by 60% over five years, a level that would place Japan among the world’s biggest spenders on military power.

The prime minister said he was seeking a decision on the timing of tax increases to fund increased spending, but that goal may have to be sacrificed to ensure a weakened minority government remains in power.

“We still don’t know what kind of government will be formed, but it will be very difficult for anyone to give the green light to higher taxes on defense spending,” said Katsuya Yamamoto, director of the Defense Studies Program. securities at Sasakawa University. Foundation for Peace. “When there is this kind of political instability, it inevitably gives other nations the impression that Japan’s leadership has weakened.”

With the help of Erica Yokoyama and Akemi Terukina.