What you need to know: The U.S. Air Force is pursuing advanced modernization programs, including the sixth-generation NGAD fighter, CCA drone swarms, and the NGAS refueling system, to maintain air superiority in a potential conflict with China. However, the high costs of these programs result in difficult funding decisions.

Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall highlighted the budget challenge at the recent Airlift/Tank Association symposium, emphasizing that each program is interconnected and essential to countering China’s growing capabilities.

-With a projected $300 million per NGAD fighter, Kendall stressed the need for more investment as modernization requirements and the looming threat of conflict between China and Taiwan increase.

The US Air Force is modernizing. With the 2030s fast approaching and the threat of near-equal conflict with China still looming on the horizon, the Air Force is working on several ambitious programs to ensure the U.S. military benefits from air superiority in a potential conflict.

Some of the programs currently underway include the Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) program which will produce a sixth-generation stealth combat aircraft, and the Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA) drone swarms, and the Next Generation Aerial Refueling System (NGAS).

However, the Air Force and Congress have realized that these programs are expensive. And with the recent “traumatic” experience with the price of the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter of approximately 2 trillion dollarsthe Air Force will have to prioritize certain programs over others.

Take-off costs

At the Airlift/Tank Association symposium in early November, Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall said the Air Force will need to find creative solutions to its future force structure due to high program costs. under development.

“These three potential new-design platforms are all linked together, all in an Agile Combat Employment context,” Kendall said on the three current programs.

The Air Force secretary said they are linked both operationally and financially, with purchasing decisions closely linked.

Air Force leaders have often stated that to effectively counter China, the NGAD, NGASand CCA are all important capabilities that will help the US military maintain air superiority.

“At this time, given our commitments, resources and strategic priorities, it is difficult for me to see how we can afford a combination of these new designs,” Kendall said.

Of course, Kendall’s message is as much to his generals as it is to the aerospace industry and its high prices. Some of the estimates for the NGADwhich will replace the F-22 Raptor in the air superiority mission, brings the cost of each combat aircraft to an amount of up to 300 million dollars.

The specter of near-peer conflict with China still looms in the background and influences how the Air Force makes decisions about which programs to greenlight.

“There comes a point where you simply need more resources to accomplish more missions. This is especially true today,” added the Secretary of the Air Force.

Kendall recently said he believes the Chinese military will be ready to invade and capture Taiwan by 2027, regardless of whether the U.S. military intervenes. This assessment is consistent with statements by other U.S. defense officials about the possibility of conflict with China on Taiwan in the years to come.

“Modernization bills for both air force branches of the nuclear triad will come due in the coming years. We must have a robust air defense base and we must attack the long-range kill chains of our potential adversaries,” Kendall said.

“All of these are absolutely critical to the success of the Air Force, Space Force, and the Joint Force, and all of these require substantial increased investment (sic),” the Secretary of the Air Force concluded.

About the author

Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist, specializing in special operations and a veteran of the Hellenic Army (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ). He holds a BA from Johns Hopkins University and an MS from the School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) at Johns Hopkins. His work has been featured in Business Insider, SandboxAnd SOFREP.

Image credit: Creative Commons.