Hurricane Rafael made landfall in Cuba on Wednesday and became a major hurricane, and the late-season tropical system has now emerged in the Gulf of Mexico. But now the question arises: where does she go next?

HURRICANE RAFAEL UPDATE: LOCATION I PROJECTED PATH

THE FOX Forecast Center said that what is happening now is a rare event. Rafael remains a Category 2 hurricane according to the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center (NHC).

The predicted intensity of Hurricane Rafael. (FOX Weather)

This is the first Category 2 storm to enter the Gulf of Mexico in November since Hurricane Ida in 2009.

Hurricane Cuba 2024

Cuba and parts of the western Caribbean were undoubtedly hardest hit by the storm, which brought devastating hurricane-force winds, torrential rains and a life-threatening storm surge.

All tropical alerts have been lifted and conditions are expected to gradually improve in the region, but millions of people along the U.S. Gulf Coast will closely monitor the hurricane’s progress as it slowly tracks across the Gulf of Mexico.

According to the latest NHC advisory, Rafael is approximately 200 miles west of Key West, Florida, and moving northwest at 9 mph.

This graphic shows the status of Hurricane Rafael. (FOX Weather)

Rafael has maximum sustained winds of 105 mph, and they are expected to weaken as the storm meanders through the Gulf of Mexico over the next few days.

THE FOX Forecast Center said computer forecast models strongly agree that Rafael will quickly turn west and begin its journey toward the central Gulf of Mexico.

Hurricane Rafael’s forecast cone. (FOX Weather)

The guiding currents that help Rafael on its path from the Caribbean to the Gulf will begin to weaken significantly, allowing the hurricane to meander through the central Gulf through the weekend and into next week.

Projected path of Hurricane Rafael

THE FOX Forecast Center He added that there is a growing consensus that Rafael will slowly move toward Texas or Mexico and gradually weaken as it goes.

Spaghetti plots for Hurricane Rafael. (FOX Weather)

However, there is a chance that Rafael will turn north, but the FOX Forecast Center says that seems less likely.

Indeed, Rafael will evolve in a very dry atmosphere and with strong headwinds at altitude. Due to the hostile atmospheric conditions, Rafael could simply dissipate.

If Rafael survives until next week, FOX Forecast Center said this could be because it moved just far enough south into the western Gulf of Mexico to avoid these hostile conditions. In this case, the Mexican coast could be threatened.