close
close

Apre-salomemanzo

Breaking: Beyond Headlines!

    • Russia-Ukraine War: Can Donald Trump end it in 24 hours?
    aecifo

    Russia-Ukraine War: Can Donald Trump end it in 24 hours?

    Umito Posted on

    Russia-Ukraine War: Can Donald Trump end it in 24 hours?
    Critics say Trump’s track record does not demonstrate his ability to achieve rapid peace in complex conflicts.

    As the world prepares to face sudden changes and twists once again Donald TrumpUS presidency, political analysts are turning their attention to one of the former US president’s boldest election claims: He could end the Russia-Ukraine War within “24 hours” of taking office.
    Driving the news

    • Trump’s promise to end the war between Russia and Ukraine, reiterated in speeches throughout the campaign, has sparked both skepticism and a glimmer of hope in every corner of the world.
    • The seriousness of Trump’s statement cannot be underestimated, given that the war in Ukraine – Europe’s largest armed conflict since World War II – has cost countless lives and reshaped geopolitical alliances.
    • “I think we will talk,” Trump said in an interview with NBC, hinting at possible direct talks with the Russian president. Vladimir Putinwho himself congratulated Trump, noting with guarded optimism that the president-elect’s campaign statements “deserve attention.”
    • Putin, in his first public remarks since Trump’s victory, said the former US president acted like a real man during an assassination attempt on him while speaking at a campaign rally in Pennsylvania in July.
    • “He behaved, in my opinion, very correctly, courageously, like a real man,” Putin said.
    • To be sure, the 24-hour promise comes as no surprise from Trump, who prides himself on what he sees as an unprecedented ability to broker deals. But as past examples show, big promises have often yielded mixed results. In 2019, for example, Trump’s attempt to secure a denuclearization deal with North Korea’s Kim Jong-un in Hanoi ended in failure, underscoring the unpredictable results that come from rapid diplomacy.
    • Critics say Trump’s track record does not demonstrate his ability to achieve rapid peace in complex conflicts. As a former president, his engagements often favored unconventional tactics that sometimes resulted in high-level diplomatic meetings but did not result in lasting resolutions.

    Why it matters
    The war in Ukraine, which began in February 2022, has had significant geopolitical and humanitarian consequences. U.S. and European allies have collectively provided billions of dollars in military and humanitarian aid to support Ukraine to resist Russian advances. Trump’s remarks about a potential early end to the conflict have heightened anxiety among NATO members and U.S. allies, who worry about a possible shift in U.S. foreign policy.
    For European leaders, Trump’s election signals possible changes in transatlantic relations and a recalibration of U.S. military and financial support for Ukraine. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg and other officials have previously expressed concern over Trump’s previous statements about the relevance of NATO and his criticism of member countries that do not respect the defense spending criteria. These factors amplify fears of a reduction in support for Ukraine if Trump actually attempted to implement significant changes.
    A lever at Trump’s disposal

    • But what would happen if Trump really wanted to follow through on his election promise? What tools does he have to force Russia and Ukraine to reach a settlement? If Trump wants to promote peace talks, he could use his economic and military influence as leverage.
    • Sanctions and Aid Control: Trump indicated he would reevaluate his military and financial support for Ukraine, potentially reducing aid. While this could push Ukraine to negotiate, it could also embolden Russia and damage the credibility of the United States as a steadfast ally.
    • Exerting diplomatic pressure on European nations to increase their contributions or take a more active role could change the dynamic, but would carry risks. European leaders are already grappling with political and financial challenges related to sustained military support.

    Challenges to Trump’s 24-hour promise
    Lack of details: Trump did not explain how he would implement a resolution within 24 hours. Experts note that complex negotiations would require concessions, groundwork and sustained talks that cannot be condensed into such a short period.
    Presidential transition period: Trump will hold no formal power to influence foreign policy until his inauguration on January 20. During this period, President Biden will remain at the helm, maintaining current U.S. policies, including continued support for Ukraine.
    Before the Trump presidency is inaugurated, the Biden administration could decide to increase U.S. aid to Ukraine, which could increase its chances of fighting Russia. Thus, the outgoing administrator could complicate Trump’s promise to quickly end the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.
    The big picture

    • Peacemaking in Ukraine is multifaceted, involving a mix of geopolitical interests, military realities, and national pride.
    • Russia’s strategic interests include maintaining control over Crimea and the eastern territories of Ukraine. Putin set conditions such as Ukraine renouncing NATO ambitions and recognizing Russian control over the occupied regions.
    • Analysts in Moscow have mixed opinions on Trump’s presidency; While some see opportunities in his skepticism of NATO and US interventionism, others remember that Trump’s first term was marked by new sanctions and actions that contradicted expectations of ‘a softer position.
    • Putin has suggested he is open to negotiations, but insists any negotiations must reflect new post-invasion territorial and military realities.
    • Ukrainian President Volodymyr ZelenskyUkraine’s position is clear: a “quick end would be a loss” for Ukraine. The Ukrainian president warned that any premature resolution could result in defeat and would embolden Moscow, thereby destabilizing Europe.
    • Zelensky pleaded for support from the United States and its allies to force Russia to negotiate on Ukraine’s terms, aiming to avoid a temporary ceasefire that could allow Russia to regroup.
    • Any plan that suggests Ukraine makes significant concessions risks alienating not only kyiv, but also U.S. allies determined to see Russian aggression countered. Germany, the United Kingdom and Eastern European states have expressed strong support for maintaining Ukraine’s sovereignty.

    What they say

    • “What was said about the desire to restore relations with Russia, to end the Ukrainian crisis, in my opinion, deserves at least attention,” Putin said. Yet Putin’s tone carries a note of caution.
    • “There is no point in putting pressure on us. But we are always ready to negotiate taking into full account mutual legitimate interests,” Putin added.
    • “It’s clear to me that he wants to end it,” Zelensky said of Trump’s promise, while stressing that a rushed settlement could be disastrous for Ukraine, equating a quick end to defeat potential.
    • “Trump’s statements about ending the war in a day amount to more campaign hyperbole than practical policy,” Tatiana Stanovaya, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, told Bloomberg.
    • “Many people close to power in Moscow and who understand American politics are afraid of Trump’s victory,” Stanovaya added. “You can drink a bottle of wine, dance happily and then have a terrible hangover.
    1000000023

    What’s next

    • Ending the war in Ukraine would likely involve more than just a declaration; this would require considerable diplomatic leverage and military strategy. Even if Trump touts his ability to change outcomes through his negotiating power alone, the reality on the ground is much more complicated.
    • The war has strengthened the positions of both sides, with Russia consolidating its control over significant territories and Ukraine strongly rejecting any settlement that compromises its sovereignty or leads to a de facto frozen conflict that Russia could exploit to rearm and attack again later.
    • So if Trump is serious about ending the conflict, the process will involve balancing perceptions to avoid the appearance of a Russian victory or Ukrainian defeat. This diplomatic juggling would require aligning with Western interests and obtaining Ukraine’s support. Trump’s post-election remarks indicate a potential willingness to explore dialogue, but history suggests that promises of rapid and sweeping change often respond to the complex reality of geopolitical impasses.
    • For now, the world waits to see whether Trump’s bold statements will turn into concrete strategies or whether, as critics suggest, they will join the archives of broken promises. The stakes couldn’t be higher. An immediate ceasefire may be a pipe dream, but Trump’s propensity to engage with authoritarian figures like Putin could spark dialogue that changes the dynamics of the war. It remains an open question, however, whether this will be enough to stop the bloodshed.

    (With contribution from agencies)

    Umito
    View all posts

    You Might Also Like