A key battle between the top four rivals gets underway in Happy Valley as No. 3 Penn State hosts No. 4 Ohio State on Saturday. Let’s check the latest prediction for the match from an analytical model that simulates games.

Ohio State is 1 point away from being undefeated after a close loss to Oregon a few weeks ago and can ill afford a second loss to a top team and keep its playoff hopes intact.

Penn State improved to 4-0 in Big Ten play, but with some concerns about its starting quarterback after Drew Allar left last week’s game with an injury.

In anticipation of this week’s game, let’s take a look at the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and selects winners based on a projected per-game scoring margin.

So far, the mocks are siding with the Buckeyes over the Nittany Lions.

Ohio State should win the game by majority 61.2 percent of the most recent computer simulations of the confrontation.

This leaves Penn State as the presumptive winner in the remaining games. 38.8 percent sims.

In total, the Buckeyes came in first in 12,240 of the index’s calculations for the game, while the Nittany Lions came in ahead of OSU in the other 7,760 predictions.

And the index predicts a very tight game if we consider the possible margins.

Ohio State should be 4 points better than Penn State on the same field in the current composition of both teams, according to the model’s latest predictions.

If so, that would be just enough to cover the spread of it.

That’s because Ohio State is a 3.5 point favorites against Penn State, according to updated lines posted on FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists total 45.5 points for the game (Over -105, Under -115).

And that set the money odds for Ohio State at -170 and for Penn State at +140 to win outright.

So far, a plurality of bettors are taking the home team against the visiting Buckeyes, according to the latest consensus picks for the game.

Penn State gets 62 percent betting either to win outright in the event of an upset, or to keep the final score at one basket or less in the event of a defeat.

The other 38 percent The Ohio State betting project will win the game and cover the narrow spread.

Penn State is second among Big Ten teams with a 83.1 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to FPI metrics.

This model gives the Nittany Lions a total win prediction of Games 11.1 this season.

Ohio State is right behind in these projections, ranking third in the Big Ten with a 73 percent shooting to the 12-team playoffs.

And the index forecast 10.5 wins for the Buckeyes in 24.

College football Football Power Index (FPI) rankings and computer prediction models are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

Rankings and score predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and matches, using a combination of key analytics including scores to date, quality of opponents, talent of team, recruitment and schedule of a team.

Teams are not ranked in order of talent like in other rankings, but by projected points margin per game against an average team on a neutral court.

First place votes in parentheses

1. Oregon (61)
2. Georgia (1)
3. State of Pennsylvania
4. Ohio State
5. Miami
6. Texas
7. Tennessee
8. Notre Dame
9. BYU
10. Texas A&M
11. Clemson
12. Iowa State
13. Indiana
14. Alabama
15. Boise State
16. LSU
17. Kansas State
18. Pittsburgh
19. Ole Mademoiselle
20. EMS
21. Army
22. Washington State
23. Colorado
24. Illinois
25. Missouri

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Game odds are updated periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and needs help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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