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(FOX Weather / FOX Weather)

Mother Nature doesn’t pay attention to the calendar. The consensus of computer forecast models is that the strong tropical disturbance south of the Dominican Republic will develop into a large low pressure system in the central Caribbean and eventually organize into a tropical depression or tropical storm.

Satellite imagery shows a tropical disturbance in the Caribbean Sea.

(NOAA)

The National Hurricane Center still has chances of development in the medium term. They want to make sure computer forecasts continue to show a developing system this week near Nicaragua or Honduras before increasing the official chances of development.

The consensus between the different models is unusually strong – and bizarrely so. At Florida State University, researcher Bob Hart created a system to estimate development potential based on computer forecasts. The odds in FSU are currently 73% that at least one depression will develop in the Caribbean over the next 7 days. The chances of NHC development will increase closer to the FSU number if computer forecast trends continue.

Until next weekend, high pressure over the southeastern United States will limit anything developing in the Caribbean to waters near Central America. The atmospheric configuration would appear to favor the development of a tropical storm or Hurricane Sara. Regardless, it appears to be slowly spreading across the Western Caribbean.

It’s the long run – until the middle of next week – that presents some boring possibilities. We never trust 8 or 10 day forecasts, of course, especially when the system in question has not even begun to organize itself. But because the consensus on computer forecasts is so high, we pay special attention to it.

In a normal year, tropical systems remain stuck in the Caribbean during November because hostile winds aloft and cold fronts control the waters farther north. Just yesterday it seemed like we were entering this typical weather pattern.

However, an extremely severe dual storm is now forecast to move out of the southwestern United States and across the country. If it is as strong as today’s forecast indicates, it could push back the blocking high pressure system crossing the southeastern United States and provide a northward path for the potential Caribbean system.

If that happens, the potential storm could head toward Florida by the middle of next week.

The National Hurricane Center has a medium-term chance of a tropical depression developing in this area during the next week.

(NOAA)

There are a lot of variables here. First, the Caribbean system must grow and intensify. If it stays weak or moves inland, the jet stream associated with the Great American Storm System won’t be able to catch it. Additionally, long-range predictions for the southwest system may be overstated. It wouldn’t be the first time. Obviously, any weather forecast more than a week in advance is subject to big changes.

Yesterday I pointed out the American GFS model for its overzealousness in developing the smallest vortex that presents itself. I said we wouldn’t pay attention to it until other computer forecasts follow. Well, today, in broad terms, they all show that development in the Caribbean is moving north. We’ll see what future forecasts bring. As always, all predictions for systems that are not yet developed are subject to large errors and significant changes.

So be careful in Florida! We’ll see what this week brings. Nothing would happen until next week. Sorry for getting your hopes up yesterday, although those hopes may still be founded. We are all looking forward to the end of this hurricane season.