AAmerica was supposed to be in recession. When the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates at the fastest pace since the early 1980s, few economists expected the economy to be headed toward a presidential election in the state. Indeed, just a few months ago, few people thought things would go this well. Real (inflation-adjusted) quarterly growth in annualized terms has averaged 2.9% since the start of 2023, above its long-term trend. On October 30, America will release its GDP figure for the third quarter of this year. According to a usually reliable model from the Atlanta Fed, the economy would have grown at an annualized rate of 3.3%, almost twice as high as the median forecast in July, at the start of the quarter.