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(FOX Weather / FOX Weather)

Updated at 9:30 a.m. Monday, November 4, 2024

The Caribbean disturbances that we are following are still in the organizational phase. It has a wide center of circulation and an irregular shape. The National Hurricane Center has designated it as Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen, which simply means it is likely to develop, so watches and warnings are issued for upcoming land areas.

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Satellite imagery showing the center of the tropical disturbance expected to become Tropical Storm Rafael.

(NOAA)

The disturbance is expected to strengthen into Hurricane Rafael tomorrow. The storm will hit Jamaica this evening and move near the Cayman Islands during the day on Tuesday. If the system organizes today as forecast, it could be a strong tropical storm or hurricane by late tomorrow. Tropical storm warnings are therefore in effect for Jamaica and a hurricane warning for Cayman in anticipation of the strengthening process.

Atmospheric conditions over the northwest Caribbean seem conducive to constant strengthening over very warm waters. The current track takes the storm over the western tip of Cuba and into the Gulf of Mexico with hurricane force on Wednesday.

There is reasonable consensus in the various computer forecast models that Hurricane Rafael will likely reach the Gulf, but then things get fuzzy. Steering currents are expected to dissipate, so movements between Thursday and Friday are expected to be slow. In addition, winds aloft are expected to become increasingly hostile.

The National Hurricane Center reflects these changes in the atmospheric environment by forecasting that the storm will slowly weaken as it drifts into the central Gulf.

Forecasts of slow-moving storms are always problematic. In this case, some computer forecasts point it west toward Mexico or Texas, and other forecasts show it tilting farther east between Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle. Regardless, if the storm makes it to the coast, it will be in a weakening phase, based on what we currently know.

Obviously, everyone on the Gulf Coast, from Texas to Florida, should stay informed this week. Forecasts will likely be adjusted as the system becomes more organized, strengthened, and better defined.

Regardless, with Rafael likely in the Caribbean and moving toward the Gulf, and a strong high pressure system off the southeast coast, winds will be gusty across the southern half of the Florida peninsula and the Keys Tuesday, Wednesday and possibly through Thursday.

Additionally, Rafael is likely to draw rich tropical moisture northward, with greater chances of rain spreading across the peninsula starting Tuesday.

If Rafael follows the right side of the National Hurricane Center’s cone, as some computer forecasts indicate, stronger winds and storm surges could affect the Keys and the southern half of Florida’s west coast Wednesday through Thursday. The storm has just formed, so we will see how the forecast develops.

Although there appear to be similarities, this is not a scenario similar to Hurricane Helene. There may be effects on parts of the Florida coast, so we must remain vigilant. But it is very unlikely that this storm will become a hurricane, wherever it happens.

Possibility of formation of a new tropical depression in the northern Caribbean.

(NOAA)

North of the Caribbean Islands, the National Hurricane Center identifies a potential area of ​​development where there is a low risk of a tropical depression forming over the next few days. The system will most likely move near or over the islands as a surge of moisture is trapped beneath the high pressure system off the southeast coast.

Over the weekend, this could affect the southern Florida peninsula. We’ll keep an eye on it.

Off the coast of Portugal, Tropical Storm Patty is running out of steam. It is predicted to lose its tropical characteristics and weaken today.