With former President Donald Trump now set to return to the White House following his election victory this week, the fate of several student loan forgiveness programs is murky. But there will most likely be significant changes to the student loan landscape over the next four years.

One thing seems almost certain: The Biden administration’s initiatives to cancel student debt on a large scale will not continue. Biden’s “Plan B” loan forgiveness initiative is currently blocked by a federal court in Missouri and would not be implemented under the Trump administration. And a Trump-led Department of Education is highly unlikely to implement the Biden administration’s plans to create a Student Loan Cancellation Path Based on Hardship.

But the future of several other existing student loan relief programs could diverge, depending on a variety of factors, including how aggressive the Trump administration’s repeal efforts are and whether Republicans can muster majorities sufficient in Congress to enact more radical changes.

Lower Payments and Student Loan Forgiveness Under SAVE Plan Likely Ending

The SAVE plan is almost certainly dead in the water, and the Trump administration may not even need to do much to make it happen.

SAVE is a new income-driven repayment plan that the Biden administration implemented last year. The program reduces borrowers’ monthly payments, eliminates excess accrued interest to prevent uncontrolled balance growth, and establishes multiple deadlines for eventual student loan forgiveness. But a group of Republican-led states filed legal challenges last spring. In August, the 8th Circuit Court of Appeals issued a nationwide injunction block the program while the litigation continued.

The Trump administration could repeal SAVE through the regulatory process. But that may not be necessary. Last month, in a key court hearing, the 8th Circuit panel seemed inclined to bring down the SAFEGUARD plan. If that happens, the Trump administration could simply choose not to appeal this decision to the Supreme Court, allowing the 8th Circuit ruling to stand. A decision could be made at any time.

Depending on the scope of the 8th Circuit’s ruling, student loan forgiveness under several other IDR plans, including the Pay-As-You-Earn plan and Income-Contingent Repayment, or ICR, could also be canceled.

Student loan forgiveness under income-driven repayment is intact, for now

In the August decision, the 8th Circuit emphasized that student loan forgiveness under income-driven repayment, a separate IDR plan, faced no legal jeopardy. Indeed, Congress created IBR through separate legislation, expressly allowing loan forgiveness after 20 or 25 years.

The Trump administration would have limited tools to eradicate IBR through executive action alone. The administration could erect barriers to relief, for example by reducing oversight and accountability of loan servicers, or by making it difficult for borrowers to obtain relief through IBR due to funding reductions or personnel which would cause processing delays. But legally, the IBR is more firmly anchored in federal law than the SAVE plan, which was established through a regulatory process without congressional involvement (the Biden administration maintains that Congress actually authorized plans as SAVE through legislation passed in 1993, but the 8th Circuit seems ready to reject these arguments).

It would ultimately take an act of Congress to repeal the IBR plan. That’s a possibility, as Republicans are expected to take control of the Senate and appear on track to win a slim majority in the House of Representatives. But it could be difficult to repeal the IBR even with Republicans’ complete control of Washington, particularly if lawmakers fail to bypass the Senate filibuster, which requires 60 votes. If Republicans are able to pass legislation repealing IBR, they will likely create some sort of alternative income-driven repayment plan option, but could eliminate loan forgiveness as a feature of the program.

Public service loan exemption could be modified or repealed

Like IBR, the PSLF program was established by legislation passed by Congress; therefore it cannot simply be eliminated by executive action. The 8th Circuit, in its August order, argued that the two programs are distinct from a program such as the SAVE plan, which was created solely through regulations established by the Department of Education .

But regulations are subject to change or repeal, and the Biden administration recently issued new PSLF regulations that could be in jeopardy. These new rules, which took effect last year, offer many new benefits to PSLF borrowers:

• PSLF buyouta new program that allows borrowers to make a lump sum payment to obtain credit for certain prior periods of ineligible deferment or forbearance to count toward loan forgiveness;
• Simplified definitions of eligible PSLF employment;
• An expansion of eligible PSLF jobs to include certain contractors and adjunct faculty;
• An expansion of eligible PSLF payments to include certain deferment and forbearance periods, including for those serving in the Peace Corps, AmeriCorps, and the military.

The Trump administration would need to initiate a formal regulatory process to modify or repeal these PSLF programs, which would take a year or two.

But the PSLF program itself, which allows borrowers to receive student loan forgiveness after the equivalent of 10 years of qualifying payments and qualifying public or nonprofit employment, is expected to remain intact. unless Congress passes new legislation to repeal the program.

As with IBR, this could happen if Republicans controlled all branches of government. But a repeal of PSLF would face the same challenges as a repeal of IBR, so while PSLF could be eliminated, it is not necessarily a guaranteed outcome. And if a repeal occurs, some quarters may push to repeal PSLF only for new enrollees (the previous Trump administration proposed it as part of a broad budget plan in 2020).

Student loan forgiveness through borrower defense until repayment

THE Borrower defense program until repayment has long been the subject of fierce political and legal battles. This program allows borrowers to apply for discharge of their federal student debt if their school has made false statements or promises about key aspects of the degree or certificate program such as admissions selectivity, accreditation or career and income prospects.

There are several versions of borrower defense regulations. The Obama administration first adopted regulations and established a formal borrower defense application process in 2016. Then, in 2019, the Trump administration adopted new rules that significantly reduced program relief and increased the burden of proof that borrowers had to meet to be eligible for any program of study. loan forgiveness. In 2023, the Biden administration adopted a new set of rules designed to be much friendlier to borrowers and to replace Trump-era regulations.

But as of now, the 2023 settlement remains tied up in a legal battle before the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals. In a recent ruling, the court suggested it was likely these Biden-era rules would be overturned. If so, just as with the SAVE plan, the Trump administration could simply decline to appeal this decision, leaving it in effect. This would effectively leave 2019 regulations in place, making it much more difficult for borrowers to obtain student loan forgiveness under the program.

Student Loan Forgiveness in Case of Medical Impairment

Unlike many other federal student loan relief programs, the Total and Permanent Disability Discharge program has not been particularly controversial. The TPD Discharge program provides student loan forgiveness to borrowers who are unable to pursue substantial, gainful employment. due to medical deficiencies.

Like IBR and PSLF, the TPD Discharge program was established by Congress, so it cannot simply be eliminated by executive action. It seems unlikely that a Republican-led Congress will repeal the TPD discharge program. In fact, in 2017, a unified Republican Congress and President Trump signed legislation temporarily exempting student loan forgiveness under the TPD discharge program from federal taxes – a provision that will be renewed next year.

It is possible that the Trump administration could reverse recent regulations established by the Biden administration – including the elimination of post-discharge income monitoring, which has historically resulted in many TPD discharges being canceled if the borrower does not did not respond or earned more than a year. nominal income during the three years following approval of a release.