PFP – Primary Food Processors.

Donald Trump has promised a rapid resolution to the war in Ukraine. If successful, the most likely outcome is a ceasefire based on maintaining current front lines. This, however, means another frozen conflict, rather than peace.

Does Trump know that frozen conflicts are a Russian specialty? And does he know the reasons why Russia designs such scenarios?

Assuming that’s not the case, here’s what he should know.

In the context of post-Soviet international relations, a frozen conflict is an active armed conflict that has ended, but where no peace treaty or other political framework is in place to resolve it.

Russia’s main reason for freezing conflicts is to prevent the post-Soviet countries it borders from moving closer to the EU and NATO.

Typically, the EU and NATO require a candidate country to resolve territorial disputes with its neighbors before joining. (A huge exception was made for Cyprus, which joined the EU in 2004 without controlling almost half of its territory, now considered EU territory, despite being under Ankara’s orders.)

Russia likes to ensure that several independent post-Soviet states have only nominal sovereignty over their entire territory. In reality, Russian puppets still control large swaths of their country.

Over the years, this has been the case of Nagorno-Karabakh, an Armenian enclave located on the territory of Azerbaijan, with Transnistriaa Russian-controlled enclave in Moldovan territory, South Ossetia and Abkhazia, both Russian-controlled territories that are officially part of Georgia, and Ukraine’s limited sovereignty over Donbass, as provided for in the agreements from Minsk.

Conflict in these areas can remain frozen for a long time and be easily rekindled.

The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict dates back to 1988 (under the Soviet Union) and intensified in 1990 following the dissolution of the Soviet empire. Two Karabakh wars took place and it is estimated that almost 40,000 people lost their lives.

In 2024, Nagorno-Karabakh has been officially dissolved as Azerbaijan took control of the territory while the Armenian population fled.

This became possible mainly because Russia abandoned its support for Armenia and strengthened relations with Azerbaijan, a much richer country with a more powerful army.

The 1991 Moldovan Declaration of Independence clearly claims Moldovan sovereignty over the territory of Transnistria, which was however unilaterally proclaimed in September 1990 as a Soviet Republic separate from Moldova.

A war broke out in Transnistria between November 1990 and July 1992 between elements of the Russian 14th Army and pro-Moldovan forces, including Moldovan troops and police.

Deaths are estimated at between 300 and 600. Since then, Transnistria has remained outside Chisinau’s control and is entirely dependent on aid from Moscow, even though Russia does not officially recognize it. the independence of Transnistria.

The eight-day war between Russia and Georgia in 2008 resulted in the latter lose control of two of its regions: Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

Since then, only Russia, Venezuela, Nicaragua, Nauru and Syria consider them independent.

Russia clearly leads the way in both regions, while the importance of Abkhazia increases in the context of the war in Ukraine.

Moscow is currently building a naval base in Abkhaziawhere she brought her remaining military flotilla to protect it from Ukrainian attacks.

The most recent and most explicit example of what a ceasefire in Ukraine could be is the Minsk Agreements 1 and 2 of 2014 and 2015. These aimed to end the fighting in the Donbass region between armed Russian separatist groups supported by Moscow and the Ukrainian army.

Although the fighting subsided after the signing of the agreement, it never completely ended and the provisions of the agreement were never fully implemented, even though (or perhaps because) they served Russian interests.

A American Pax Donald Trump’s version, which would freeze the front line, would not resolve the territorial problems. Ukraine and the EU will continue to consider Russian-occupied territories, including Crimea, as Ukrainian.

It would also fail to deliver justice, as war crimes would go unpunished, no reparations would be discussed and no security guarantees would be provided unless the EU provided them on its own initiative.

No real peace process will follow and Russia will be able to unblock the conflict whenever it wants.

In summary, before shaking Putin’s hand, Trump should understand that his quick deal is unlikely to be any different from what we have seen before and that it clearly will not work – except in the interests of Russia, which likes keep your options open. the long term.

The roundup

Italian healthcare workers are striking over pay disputes and budget cuts. Particularly against the the government’s decision to allocate fewer resources to health care in the 2025 budget.

MEPs approved the candidacy of Spanish Commissioner-designate Teresa Ribera on Wednesday, but she always accuses the Partido Popular (PPE) for their management of deadly floods in Valencia.

Portuguese Defense Minister Nuno Melo wants more NATO contribution because of Putin, not Trump. Noting that NATO leaders have said the 2% target may need to be raised.

Poland will provide its 45th support program to Ukraine, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced after a phone call with Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk.

Council set to take cautious stance on future of telecommunications, with some EU countries suggesting removing any reference to market consolidation.

Europe’s largest industrial groups are stepping up efforts to roll back EU rules. To achieve this, the Commission must examine the very essence of the development of regulations.

The European Court of Auditors complains about the “lack of supervision” of funds intended for the digitalization of health uncertainty surrounding the use of EU funding schemes.

Pay attention to

• The United Nations Climate Change Conference, COP29, continues in Baku, Azerbaijan.
• The European Parliament holds an information session before the plenary session in Strasbourg. The vote on the new Commission will likely dominate next week.
• European Commissioner Ylva Johansson is in Budapest, Hungary, where she will meet Hungarian Interior Minister Sándor Pintér, Austrian Federal Interior Minister Gerhard Karner, Interior Minister of Bulgaria, Atanas Ilkov, and the Interior Minister of Romania, Cătălin Predoiu. .
• European Commissioner Didier Reynders travels to Warsaw, Poland, to meet Polish Justice Minister Adam Bodnar.
• European Commissioner Vĕra Jourová speaks at the Maintaining Justice in a Changing Europe conference in Brussels, Belgium.
• European Commissioner Nicolas Schmit attends the opening ceremony of the ETUC High Level Conference on “Trade Union Solidarity Across Borders” in Brussels, Belgium.

(Edited by Alice Taylor-Braçe/Rajnish Singh)