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Are the Democrats staying home in 2024?

Umito November 15, 2024

The apparent decline in turnout was detrimental to Harris, especially in counties where Trump also lost votes or only marginally increased his raw vote total. In the 2,066 counties where Trump’s vote total fell or rose by 5 percent or less, Harris saw her vote total decline by an average of more than 7.5 percent per county, while turnout in these counties was down 3 percent by county. In these counties – which represent two-thirds of all counties in which votes were counted – Trump added just over 225,000 votes, while Harris lost 2.15 million. compared to 2020 levels.

And even though most of these counties went for Trump in 2020, the disproportionate loss of votes for Democrats is telling across the board. Harris failed to flip a single county, and even in the counties she won, she received 2.3 million fewer votes than President Biden in 2020, while Trump added more of 670,000, a net change of 2.9 million votes in favor of the Republican.

The swing state of Pennsylvania offers a striking example. In Philadelphia County, Harris fell more than 36,000 votes short of Biden’s 2020 level, but Trump only increased his vote total from 2020 by about 11,000 votes.

There are 913 counties in which overall votes have decreased since 2020 as well as votes for each major party. In these counties, Harris felt the impact of this drop in turnout much more acutely than Trump — indicating that fewer Democrats turned out to vote.

In those 913 counties, Harris fell more than a million votes short of Biden’s 2020 total, a drop of about 10.8% on average per county. And while Trump’s total also declined — just over 400,000, or 3.74 percent per county — it wasn’t as drastic.

The trend continued at the state level as well. In states where turnout was down, Harris lost more votes, sometimes by huge amounts. In Massachusetts, Trump won by nearly 90,000 votes in 2020 – but Harris lost more than 240,000 to Biden.